Albania - Belarus prediction 26 September 2026

The Albania vs Belarus prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Sep 26, 2026, at 18:45 points to a tight contest. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, Albania has a 40% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and Belarus at 30%. This makes Albania the slight favorite, but the match is far from a foregone conclusion.

Team Form

Albania's recent results raise concerns. In their last five matches, they have recorded four losses and just one win (L, L, L, L, W). The sole victory was a 4-2 friendly win over Jordan in October 2025. Since then, they have suffered defeats against Poland (1-2), Ukraine (0-1), Israel (0-1), and Luxembourg (0-1). The attack has managed only 1 goal in those four defeats, highlighting a scoring problem.

Belarus, in contrast, enters the match in much stronger form. Their last five outings show three wins, one draw, and one loss (D, W, W, W, L). They drew 2-2 with Burkina Faso, beat Syria 4-1, Armenia 2-1, and Cyprus 1-0, before a 1-4 loss to Russia back in June 2025. Over this stretch, Belarus scored 10 goals, averaging 2 per game, and kept two clean sheets.

Head-to-Head Record

Albania holds a perfect head-to-head record against Belarus, having won both previous meetings. Both matches took place in the 2020 UEFA Nations League. Albania won 2-0 away in September 2020 and then triumphed 3-2 at home in November 2020. Overall, Albania has scored 5 goals and conceded 2 in these two encounters. This historical edge gives Albania a psychological advantage, though the teams have not met in over five years.

League Table Positions

Specific group standings for Albania and Belarus are not available in the current data. The overall UEFA Nations League table shows top-performing teams like Romania, Sweden, and Spain, but neither Albania nor Belarus appear among the leaders. This suggests both sides are competing in a lower division or their group results are not yet reflected in the provided standings. Therefore, league position cannot be used as a decisive factor in this prediction.

Win Probability: Albania or Belarus?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Albania win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Belarus win: 30%

This assessment is based on the inverse of implied odds from typical bookmaker margins (not directly available here) and adjusted for team form, H2H, and home advantage. Albania's perfect H2H record and home field give them a slight edge, but their dreadful recent form—four losses in five—caps their probability. Belarus's strong run of three wins in five and consistent scoring make them dangerous, yet their historical struggles against Albania and the away fixture balance the scales. The draw probability is elevated because both teams may cancel each other out. In conclusion, Albania is more likely to win, but the margin is narrow, and a draw or Belarus victory are very plausible outcomes.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not available in our data feed. However, based on the stats, Albania would likely be priced as a marginal favorite, with odds around 2.30–2.50 for a home win. The draw could be offered at 3.10–3.30, and a Belarus away win at 2.80–3.00. Our final Albania vs Belarus prediction: given Albania's home advantage and perfect H2H, they have the best chance to win, but the value might lie in the draw or a low-scoring affair. A 1-1 draw is a realistic scoreline. Bettors should consider the under 2.5 goals market, as Albania's recent matches have been low-scoring, and Belarus's away games tend to be tight.