Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay prediction 19 July 2026

Our Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay prediction for July 19, 2026, in the USL Championship sees the home side as the favorite. Based on the latest odds and team form, Phoenix Rising has a 48% chance of winning, while Monterey Bay holds a 28% probability of an away victory, with the draw at 24%.

Team Form

Phoenix Rising are struggling for consistency, with their last five results reading L, L, L, D, L. They have lost four of those five matches, including a 3-1 defeat to Colorado Springs Switchbacks and a 4-3 home loss to Oakland Roots. Their only point in this run came from a 1-1 draw at El Paso Locomotive.

Monterey Bay's recent form is slightly more mixed at L, D, W, L, W. They secured a 1-0 home win against El Paso Locomotive and a 2-1 victory over Sporting Jax, but suffered a 2-0 defeat at Tulsa Roughnecks and a 3-2 home loss to Las Vegas Lights in the USL Cup. A 0-0 draw at San Antonio FC shows they can be resilient on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Monterey Bay have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning two of the last three encounters. The most recent clash on May 18, 2025, saw Phoenix Rising win 2-0 at home. However, Monterey Bay won the two previous matches: 3-1 at home on March 30, 2025, and 1-0 at home on March 17, 2024. There have been no draws in this fixture's short history.

League Table Positions

Neither Phoenix Rising nor Monterey Bay feature in the top 12 of the overall USL Championship standings provided. The league table is led by Tampa Bay Rowdies with 31 points from 15 games. The last available spot in the standings is occupied by Colorado Springs Switchbacks with 19 points. This indicates both teams are currently outside the playoff positions, making this a crucial match to climb the table.

Win Probability: Phoenix Rising or Monterey Bay?

Based on the available odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, we have calculated the win probabilities for this match. Phoenix Rising has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Monterey Bay has a 28% chance. The calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (1.95 for a home win, 2.28 for the draw, 3.25 for an away win), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for Phoenix Rising's poor recent form and Monterey Bay's slightly better results. Despite their struggles, Phoenix Rising's home advantage and the most recent H2H win tilt the probability in their favor, making them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Phoenix Rising as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win are 1.95, while a draw is priced at 2.28 and an away win for Monterey Bay at 3.25. These odds reflect the market's expectation of a home victory. Based on the stats, Phoenix Rising are the predicted winners, but their recent losing streak suggests caution. A bet on the home win carries risk, and the draw odds of 2.28 could offer value given both teams' inconsistent form.