Burton Albion - West Ham prediction 14 February 2026

West Ham vs Burton Albion prediction for the FA Cup match on Feb 14, 2026 at 12:15. West Ham are the clear favorites to win, with a probability of 70%. The Premier League side host League 1 Burton Albion, and while the visitors come into the game unbeaten in five, the quality gap and home advantage make West Ham the likely winners.

Team Form

West Ham’s recent form reads W, L, L, L, W from their last five matches. At home, they beat Leeds United 3-0 and Everton 2-1, but suffered defeats against Arsenal (0-1) and Brentford (0-3 away). The last 10 days saw a 3-1 loss at Newcastle United. That mixed form shows West Ham are not at their most consistent, but they have a clear class edge over lower-league opposition.

Burton Albion arrive with a resilient run of results: D, D, D, D, W. In that sequence they drew 2-2 at Leyton Orient, 1-1 at home to Exeter City, 1-1 at Peterborough United, and 0-0 in a friendly at Alfreton Town, before a 1-0 home win over AFC Wimbledon. Only one win in five, but four draws underline how hard they are to beat. They have not lost in five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The data shows just one previous meeting between West Ham and Burton Albion. That match ended in a draw (0-0 in the FA Cup), with neither side securing a win. There is very little head-to-head history to separate the teams, though the draw does hint at a possible tight contest.

Team Comparison

No exact league table positions are available, but recent match data confirms the vast quality gap. West Ham play in the Premier League, while Burton Albion compete in League 1 – two tiers below. The home advantage for West Ham further tilts the balance.

Win Probability: West Ham or Burton Albion?

Based on all available data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• West Ham win: 70%
• Draw: 20%
• Burton Albion win: 10%

These percentages are derived from the gulf in league quality (Premier League vs League 1), West Ham’s home field, and the overall form trends. West Ham’s 40% win rate in their last five is partially offset by the step down in opponent class. Burton’s unbeaten run (1W, 4D) shows they can frustrate better teams, which explains the 20% draw probability. A Burton victory remains a long shot, reflected in the 10% chance. West Ham are the more probable winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Exact match odds for West Ham vs Burton Albion are not provided in the current dataset. However, typical bookmaker patterns would install West Ham as short-priced favorites, with a West Ham win offered at low odds. Given the form and the large gap between the sides, a home win is the most likely outcome. Our prediction: West Ham to win, but the resilience of Burton Albion makes the draw an outside value bet.