EDP Independiente Medellin - Vasco da Gama RJ prediction 22 July 2026

The EDP Independiente Medellin vs Vasco da Gama RJ prediction is that this Copa Sudamericana clash will be tight, with a draw the most likely outcome. Played on July 22, 2026, at 22:00, the bookmakers see Medellin as marginal favorites, but our win probabilities show the match is too close to call decisively: EDP Independiente Medellin has a 37% chance, a draw stands at 38%, and Vasco da Gama RJ has a 25% chance.

Team Form

EDP Independiente Medellin come into this match with a mixed but slightly positive spell: two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five outings (W,D,L,W,D). Their most recent result was a 2–1 home victory over Cucuta Deportivo in the Cup on June 2. Vasco da Gama RJ, on the other hand, are in a deep slump – they have lost four of their last five matches (L,L,W,L,L), scoring just four goals while conceding eight. A 1–0 away defeat to Vitoria BA on July 16 extended that poor run, leaving them with only one win in five across all competitions.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between EDP Independiente Medellin and Vasco da Gama RJ, so the head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for each side and 0 draws. This will be the first ever encounter between the two clubs.

League Table Positions

In the Copa Sudamericana overall standings, Vasco da Gama RJ are ranked 10th with 10 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; goals scored 10, goals against 6). EDP Independiente Medellin’s position is not listed in the provided table, but both are competing in the same competition.

Win Probability: EDP Independiente Medellin or Vasco da Gama RJ?

Based on the latest odds, form, and home advantage, we assign the following outcome probabilities: EDP Independiente Medellin win – 37%, draw – 38%, Vasco da Gama RJ win – 25%. The draw is the single most likely result, although Medellin’s home status gives them a slightly higher chance than Vasco. The visitors’ dreadful run of four losses in five games heavily reduces their win probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds (averaged from multiple bookies) see a very tight contest: a home win is offered at around 2.35, the draw at 2.05, and an away win at about 3.25. The low draw odds confirm the expectation of a close match. Our EDP Independiente Medellin vs Vasco da Gama RJ prediction is that the most probable outcome is a draw, but Medellin could edge it by a single goal. A low-scoring affair is likely based on the stats and odds.