Uxbridge - Chertsey Town prediction 3 January 2026

The Southern League Premier Division clash between Uxbridge and Chertsey Town on January 3, 2026, is set to be a competitive affair. Based on league standings, recent form, and head-to-head record, the visitors Chertsey Town enter the match as favourites with a 45% win probability. Uxbridge, playing at home, have a 25% chance, while a draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Uxbridge’s last five results show inconsistency: two wins, two draws, and one defeat. They drew 3-3 with Poole Town and 1-1 at Walton & Hersham, lost 2-1 to Taunton Town, then beat Hanwell Town 2-0 and Gosport Borough 2-1. The wins came against mid-to-lower table sides, and the draws against strong opposition show resilience but a lack of cutting edge.

Chertsey Town’s recent form is mixed: two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. A 1-0 home win over Hungerford Town and an impressive 2-1 victory at champions Walton & Hersham highlight their capability, but heavy defeats – 5-1 at Weymouth and 1-0 at home to Poole Town – raise questions. The 2-2 draw with Yate Town completed the run.

Head-to-Head Record

In three previous meetings across all competitions, Chertsey Town hold the upper hand with two wins and one draw. Uxbridge have yet to beat Chertsey Town. Their most recent encounter, on August 25, 2025, ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw at Chertsey Town’s ground. Earlier, in the 2024/25 FA Trophy, Chertsey Town ran out 3-0 winners at Uxbridge.

League Table Positions

Chertsey Town sit 7th in the Southern League Premier Division with 67 points from 42 games (19 wins, 10 draws, 13 losses). They have a positive goal difference (+9) and are comfortably in the top half. Uxbridge are 9th with 59 points (15 wins, 14 draws, 13 losses) and a goal difference of +4. In home/away splits, Chertsey Town’s away record ranks 8th in the division (29 points from 21 games), while Uxbridge’s home form does not place them in the top 8. This suggests the visitors may have the edge in the match-up.

Win Probability: Uxbridge or Chertsey Town?

Taking into account all available data, the win probabilities are: Uxbridge – 25%, Draw – 30%, Chertsey Town – 45%. The calculation is based primarily on the head-to-head dominance (Chertsey Town unbeaten in three meetings), the league table gap (8 points), and the better away form of Chertsey Town compared to Uxbridge’s home results. Uxbridge’s recent draws against top teams keep their chances alive, but the visitors are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not provided in the data for this fixture, but the statistical indicators point towards an away win or a draw. Our match prediction is a double chance: Chertsey Town or Draw. Given the visitors’ strong H2H record and superior league position, they are expected to avoid defeat. A 1-1 scoreline or a narrow Chertsey Town win are the most probable outcomes based on the stats.