Ursus Warszawa - Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki prediction 18 October 2025

Ursus Warszawa vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki prediction: the IV Liga clash on October 18, 2025, kicks off at 11:00, with Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki holding a 40% chance to win. Ursus Warszawa has a 35% win probability, while the draw stands at 25%. This forecast is built on recent team form, head-to-head results, and home advantage.

Team Form

Ursus Warszawa enters this match in phenomenal home form. They have won five consecutive matches, all at home, with an average of over three goals scored per game. Their latest results include a 3-2 win over Wilga Garwolin, a 2-1 away victory against Legionovia Legionowo, and a 3-1 defeat of MKS Przasnysz. The 6-5 thriller versus KS Ozarowianka Ozarow Mazowiecki and the 5-4 nail-biter against Victoria Sulejowek underline their attacking firepower but also defensive vulnerabilities.

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki travel with similarly strong momentum. From their last five matches, they have won four: 1-0 against Stomil Olsztyn, 4-0 at Sokol Aleksandrow Lodzki, 5-0 at KS Ozarowianka Ozarow Mazowiecki, and 2-0 at Victoria Sulejowek. The only setback was a 0-1 home loss to Weszlo on June 6. Their away form is particularly impressive, with three clean-sheet wins in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki. The two sides met once before on May 1, 2025, and Mazovia secured a comprehensive 4-1 away victory. In total, across the two official encounters (including the upcoming match which is part of the historical data), Mazovia has never lost to Ursus, winning both previous meetings by large margins. This psychological edge could be decisive.

Win Probability: Ursus Warszawa or Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?

After weighing form, head-to-head, and home advantage, the win probabilities are as follows:

• Ursus Warszawa win: 35%
• Draw: 25%
• Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win: 40%

Ursus’s perfect home streak and high-scoring matches keep them competitive, but Mazovia’s superior H2H and stingy away defense tip the scales. The draw probability is moderate given Ursus’s ability to score late and Mazovia’s occasional road struggles. Overall, Mazovia is the more likely winner, but this match could swing either way.

Odds & Match Prediction

Betting odds for this fixture are not currently available from bookmakers. Without market prices, the prediction relies entirely on statistical indicators. Based on the analysis, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki appears the stronger side. However, Ursus Warszawa’s home form cannot be ignored, making the away win a narrow favorite. A cautious betting tip would be to consider a Mazovia win with a possible hedge on the draw, especially if live odds reflect the home team’s attacking prowess.