Universitario de Deportes Women - Sporting Cristal Women prediction 18 July 2026

Our Universitario de Deportes Women vs Sporting Cristal Women prediction for the Championship Women match on Jul 18, 2026, sees the home side as the clear favorite. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head‑to‑head record, Universitario de Deportes Women hold a significant advantage with a 55% win probability, while Sporting Cristal Women have just a 20% chance of victory.

Team Form

Universitario de Deportes Women come into this fixture with a mixed but steady run of results over their last five matches: D, W, L, W, D. Most recently, they played out a 2‑2 draw away at Sporting Cristal Women on Jul 12, 2026. Before that, they secured an impressive 3‑0 home win against Alianza Lima Women on Jul 4 and suffered a narrow 1‑0 away loss to the same opponent on Jun 27. Away victories against FC Killas Women (2‑0) and a 2‑2 draw at Flamengo FBC Women round off the sequence. At home, they have been perfect in the league, winning all five matches with a staggering 29 goals scored and only 1 conceded.

Sporting Cristal Women’s recent form reads D, D, W, W, L. After the 2‑2 draw with Universitario, they drew 2‑2 away at Atletico Andahuaylas Women on Jul 5, beat the same side 4‑1 at home on Jun 28, demolished FC Melgar Women 8‑1 at home, and lost 1‑0 away to Alianza Lima Women. That defeat highlights their vulnerability on the road, where they have managed only two wins from five away league matches (2W, 0D, 3L, 7:6 goal difference).

Head‑to‑Head Record

The head‑to‑head statistics strongly favour Universitario de Deportes Women. In six meetings, they have won 3, drawn 3, and lost none against Sporting Cristal Women. The most recent encounter ended 2‑2 on Jul 12, 2026, while Universitario’s home record in this fixture is even more dominant: a 3‑1 victory on Apr 25, 2026, and a 6‑0 rout on Nov 2, 2025. Sporting Cristal have never beaten Universitario on any ground, and the two away draws (0‑0 in Oct 2025, 1‑1 in May 2025) are their best results. This historical trend adds weight to the home win probability.

League Table Positions

Universitario de Deportes Women sit top of the Championship Women overall table with 28 points from 10 games (9 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 55 goals and conceding only 4. Their home form is flawless – 15 points from 5 matches (5‑0‑0). Sporting Cristal Women are third overall with 21 points (7 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 30:9 goal difference), but their away record drops to 5th in the league with just 6 points from 5 games (2‑0‑3). The gap of 7 points and the contrast between home/away performances further strengthen the case for a Universitario victory.

Win Probability: Universitario de Deportes Women or Sporting Cristal Women?

The calculated match outcome probabilities are:

• Universitario de Deportes Women win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Sporting Cristal Women win: 20%

These figures are derived by taking the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home 1.86, draw 2.88, away 4.70), removing the margin, and then adjusting based on form, head‑to‑head dominance, and home/away league data. Universitario’s perfect home record and their unbeaten H2H run against Sporting Cristal (3 wins, 0 losses) push the win chance well above the raw probability implied by the odds. Sporting Cristal’s poor away form (2 wins, 3 losses) limits their chances, while the draw remains a plausible outcome given the two recent stalemates between the sides.

Conclusion: Universitario de Deportes Women are the most likely winners, with the stats pointing to a comfortable home win probability of 55%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre‑match 1X2 odds vary, with the best home win price as high as 2.10 and as low as 1.50. The draw is offered between 2.40 and 3.90, while an away win ranges from 4.50 to 5.00. These odds reflect the market’s view that Universitario de Deportes Women are clear favourites. Based on the statistics, our prediction aligns with the odds but assigns an even higher probability to a home win because of the extreme home advantage and head‑to‑head record. Expect Universitario to control the game and likely take all three points, though a low‑scoring draw cannot be ruled out.