AD Tarma - Universitario De Deportes prediction 18 July 2026
AD Tarma
Universitario De DeportesAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesAD Tarma
Cusco FCSporting CristalAD TarmaAD TarmaComerciantes UnidosCesar Vallejo MoqueguaAD TarmaAD TarmaAtletico GrauAD TarmaLos Chankas CYCFC CajamarcaAD TarmaAD TarmaAlianza LimaCiencianoAD TarmaAD TarmaFBC MelgarSport HuancayoAD TarmaAD TarmaJuan Pablo IIAlianza AtleticoAD TarmaAD TarmaUTC CajamarcaAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesClub Deportivo Los MillonariosUniversitario De DeportesSport BoysUniversitario De DeportesSport HuancayoUniversitario De DeportesDeportes TolimaCesar Vallejo MoqueguaUniversitario De DeportesNacional MontevideoUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesAtletico GrauSport BoysUniversitario De DeportesCoquimbo UnidoUniversitario De DeportesJuan Pablo IIUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesNacional MontevideoUniversitario De DeportesAlianza AtleticoUniversitario De DeportesDeportivo GarcilasoFBC MelgarUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesUniversitario De DeportesAD TarmaUniversitario De DeportesAD Tarma| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 |
| 2 |  Los Chankas CYC | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 |
| 3 |  Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 |
| 4 |  Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 |
| 5 |  FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 |
| 6 |  Cusco FC | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 | AD Tarma | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 |  UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 |
| 14 |  Cesar Vallejo Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 |
| 15 |  FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 |  Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 |
| 17 |  Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 |
| 18 |  Juan Pablo II | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 |
AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes Prediction (Jul 18)
The AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes prediction points to a tight Primera Division contest on Jul 18 at 18:15. Based on the stats, Universitario De Deportes enters as the favorite with a 43% win probability, while AD Tarma has a 31% chance and the draw sits at 26%.
Team Form
AD Tarma's recent form is inconsistent, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches (W, D, W, L, L). They beat Comerciantes Unidos 2-0 and Atletico Grau 1-0, but fell 2-1 to Sporting Cristal and 2-1 to Cusco FC. Universitario De Deportes shows a steadier run: two wins and three draws (D, D, W, D, W). They drew 0-0 with Sport Boys and Deportes Tolima, while beating Sport Huancayo 2-1 and Club Deportivo Los Millonarios 2-0 in a friendly.
Head-to-Head Record
The H2H record heavily favors Universitario De Deportes, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings. AD Tarma has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. In their most recent clash on Feb 01, 2026, Universitario De Deportes won 2-0 at home. AD Tarma's last home win in this fixture was a 2-0 result back in August 2023.
League Table Positions
Universitario sits 4th in the overall standings with 29 points from 17 matches (8W, 5D, 4L), while AD Tarma is 10th with 20 points (5W, 5D, 7L). The away side's home form is strong—4th with 21 points from 9 games—but AD Tarma's home record is not listed in the top 8. Universitario's away form is 6th, with just 1 win, 5 draws, and 2 losses, suggesting they are tough to beat on the road.
Win Probability: AD Tarma or Universitario De Deportes?
Using the available odds as a base and adjusting for form and H2H, the win probabilities are: Universitario De Deportes 43%, Draw 26%, AD Tarma 31%. The inverse of the average odds (home 3.04, draw 1.99, away 2.64) gives raw implied chances of roughly 33% for AD Tarma, 50% for the draw, and 38% for Universitario, which we normalize to remove the bookmaker margin. Universitario's superior H2H record (6 wins) and higher league position (4th vs 10th) justify bumping their probability above the raw odds, while AD Tarma's home advantage and the visitors' many away draws keep the draw probability significant.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see this as an open match. The latest odds show AD Tarma at 2.96, the draw at 1.62, and Universitario De Deportes at 2.39. The unusually low draw odds reflect Universitario's 5 draws in 8 away games. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an away win, but a draw is a very real possibility. Our AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes prediction is a narrow win for the visitors or a stalemate.
AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes — FAQ
- Who will win AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes?
- Based on our analysis, Universitario De Deportes has a 43% chance of winning, AD Tarma has a 31% chance, and the draw is at 26%. Universitario De Deportes is the favorite due to a stronger head-to-head record and higher league position.
- What is the win probability for Universitario De Deportes?
- Universitario De Deportes has a 43% win probability. This is calculated from the betting odds and adjusted for their 6 wins in the last 9 head-to-head meetings and their 4th-place standing compared to AD Tarma's 10th.
- When is the AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes match?
- The match is on Jul 18, 2026, at 18:15 local time. It is a Primera Division fixture being played at Estadio Unión Tarma in Tarma, Peru.
- What are the odds for AD Tarma vs Universitario De Deportes?
- The latest 1X2 odds are AD Tarma at 2.96, the draw at 1.62, and Universitario De Deportes at 2.39. The low draw odds highlight how often Universitario De Deportes draws away from home.