CA Aldosivi Reserve - Union Santa Fe Reserves prediction 22 July 2026

Our CA Aldosivi Reserve vs Union Santa Fe Reserves prediction for the Liga Profesional Reserves match on July 22, 2026, kicks off at 18:00. Based on extensive analysis of odds, team form, and head-to-head data, Union Santa Fe Reserves enters as the rightful favorite with a 40% win probability, while a draw also holds a 40% chance and CA Aldosivi Reserve trails at 20%.

Team Form

CA Aldosivi Reserve (last 5 matches): L, D, W, W, L

• Jul 14: Atletico Tucuman Reserves 2–1 CA Aldosivi Reserve (L)
• Jun 19: Godoy Cruz Reserves 2–2 CA Aldosivi Reserve (D)
• Jun 09: CA Aldosivi Reserve 1–0 Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza Reserves (W)
• Jun 04: CA Barracas Central Reserves 0–2 CA Aldosivi Reserve (W)
• May 28: CA Aldosivi Reserve 0–2 CA Talleres de Cordoba Reserves (L)

The home side is inconsistent, having won only two of their last five outings and failing to score in two of those matches. The defense has been breached twice in three of the last five fixtures.

Union Santa Fe Reserves (last 5 matches): D, W, W, W, L

• Jul 14: Union Santa Fe Reserves 0–0 Gimnasia La Plata Reserves (D)
• Jun 17: Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves 0–2 Union Santa Fe Reserves (W)
• Jun 08: Union Santa Fe Reserves 2–0 Atletico Tucuman Reserves (W)
• Jun 04: Godoy Cruz Reserves 0–1 Union Santa Fe Reserves (W)
• May 28: Union Santa Fe Reserves 0–2 Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza Reserves (L)

The away team carries strong recent momentum, with three wins and a draw in their last four outings. They kept clean sheets in three of those five games, highlighting a solid defensive shape.

Head-to-Head Record

In the past three meetings in the Liga Profesional Reserves, Union Santa Fe Reserves holds a clear edge: 1 win, 2 draws, and no losses. CA Aldosivi Reserve has yet to beat this opponent.

• Feb 10, 2026: Union Santa Fe Reserves 2–2 CA Aldosivi Reserve (D)
• Sep 24, 2025: Union Santa Fe Reserves 1–1 CA Aldosivi Reserve (D)
• Apr 24, 2025: CA Aldosivi Reserve 0–2 Union Santa Fe Reserves (L)

Both previous matches at Union Santa Fe Reserves' ground ended in draws, but the one fixture here saw a comfortable away win — a significant indicator for this contest.

League Table Positions

Union Santa Fe Reserves sits 11th in the overall Liga Profesional Reserves table with 7 wins, 8 draws, 3 losses, and 29 points from 18 games. CA Aldosivi Reserve does not appear in the available top 12, pointing to a much lower league rank.

In home form, Union Santa Fe Reserves ranks 8th with 5 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss (18 points from 9 games), showing how difficult they are to beat even on the road. The visiting side’s away record is not among the top eight in the division, which further favours the favourite.

Win Probability: CA Aldosivi Reserve or Union Santa Fe Reserves?

We calculate the true chances by removing the bookmaker margin from the match odds and then adjusting for recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. The raw market data gives an average of 23.4% for a CA Aldosivi Reserve win, 43.7% for a draw, and 32.9% for an away victory. After blending in the stronger H2H edge for Union Santa Fe Reserves, their superior run (W3 D1 L1), and the fact they are higher in the table, we shift the numbers to reflect on-pitch trends.

Final adjusted probabilities: CA Aldosivi Reserve win – 20%, Draw – 40%, Union Santa Fe Reserves win – 40%. This means the away side is co-favourite with the draw; a home victory is the least likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are cautious about a home upset. The average odds for full-time result: CA Aldosivi Reserve 3.80, the draw 2.03, and Union Santa Fe Reserves 2.70. The narrow draw price highlights how evenly matched the betting markets believe the two sides are, but the odds still lean towards the away team or a stalemate.

Match prediction: Based on the stats and odds analysis, the most probable outcomes are a draw or an away win for Union Santa Fe Reserves. Given the visitors’ consistent form and the head-to-head supremacy, backing Union Santa Fe Reserves to avoid defeat (Double Chance X2) looks like a sensible betting tip. A low-scoring affair is also plausible — three of the last four H2H encounters featured under 3.5 goals.