Portland Hearts of Pine - Union Omaha prediction 22 July 2026

The Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha prediction for this USL League One clash on July 22, 2026, at 23:00 leans towards the away side. Based on our win probability analysis, Union Omaha enters this match as the favorite with a 42% chance of winning, while Portland Hearts of Pine has a 32% chance and the draw sits at 26%.

Team Form

Portland Hearts of Pine's recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five results show two wins, one draw, and two losses (L, D, W, W, L). They are coming off a 2-1 away defeat to AC Boise on July 18. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 at home against New York Cosmos in the USL Cup and secured a 3-2 away win at FC Naples. Their home form includes a dominant 5-1 victory over Richmond Kickers on June 24.

Union Omaha's form is also patchy with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (D, L, W, L, L). They played out a 2-2 home draw with Westchester SC on July 18. Before that, they suffered a 4-3 away loss to Forward Madison FC in the USL Cup and a 1-0 defeat at AC Boise. Their sole recent win was a 3-1 home success against AV Alta FC on July 2.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced. In four previous meetings, both Portland Hearts of Pine and Union Omaha have one win each, with two matches ending in draws. The most recent encounter was a 2-2 draw on May 10, 2026, where Union Omaha was the home team. Portland's home win in this fixture was a 3-1 victory on June 15, 2025.

League Table Positions

Union Omaha sits 2nd in the USL League One overall standings with 32 points from 17 matches (10 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). Portland Hearts of Pine is down in 10th place with 20 points from 16 matches (5 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses). The away team's strength is evident in the home table, where Union Omaha is ranked 1st with 23 points from 9 unbeaten home games. However, this match is at Portland, where the home side's record is not listed in the top 8. Union Omaha's away form is ranked 7th, with 9 points from 8 games.

Win Probability: Portland Hearts of Pine or Union Omaha?

Our calculated win probability gives Union Omaha a 42% chance of victory. Portland Hearts of Pine has a 32% chance, and the probability of a draw is 26%. This assessment is based on the league table gap, where Union Omaha is 12 points ahead, and their superior overall record. However, Portland's home advantage and the evenly matched head-to-head history, which includes two draws, increase the likelihood of a stalemate. Union Omaha's inconsistent recent away form also prevents them from being a stronger favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific odds for this match are not available in the current data. Based on the stats, bookmakers would likely see Union Omaha as the favorite due to their higher league position. Our prediction is that Union Omaha has the best chance to win, but a draw is a very realistic outcome given the teams' history and recent form. The match is expected to be closely contested.