CA Sarmiento - Union de Santa Fe prediction 26 February 2026

Union de Santa Fe vs CA Sarmiento prediction for the Primera Division match on February 26, 2026. Based on the stats, CA Sarmiento enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Union de Santa Fe has a 30% chance and the draw stands at 30%. The match kicks off at 20:15 local time.

Team Form

Union de Santa Fe come into this match with a mixed recent record: L, L, W, D, D. In their last five outings, they have managed just one win, two draws, and two losses. Their most recent match was a 0-2 defeat against CA Independiente in the Cup, following a 0-2 loss to CA Belgrano de Cordoba. They did beat Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 before that, but consistency has been a problem.

CA Sarmiento's form reads L, W, L, L, W from their last five fixtures. They were beaten 0-4 by CA Belgrano de Cordoba in their latest game, but prior to that they secured a 1-0 home win over Tigre. Sarmiento have alternated between wins and losses, showing they can compete but are vulnerable on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head, CA Sarmiento hold the advantage with 7 wins to Union de Santa Fe's 4, plus 1 draw. The most recent meeting was on February 26, 2026, when Union de Santa Fe won 3-1 away against Sarmiento. Looking at the last five encounters, Union have won twice, Sarmiento twice, and there has been no draw. The head-to-head numbers suggest a tight contest, but the historical edge leans toward the away side.

League Table Positions

Neither team features in the top 12 of the overall Primera Division standings, indicating they are both in the lower half of the table. However, CA Sarmiento show a strong home record (4th in the home table with 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses and 16 points from 8 home matches), though this match is away. Union de Santa Fe do not appear in the top 8 home or away tables, suggesting their home form is not a significant advantage. CA Sarmiento are also absent from the top 8 away table, meaning their away performances have been modest.

Win Probability: Union de Santa Fe or CA Sarmiento?

After weighing the available data, the win probability breaks down as follows: Union de Santa Fe 30%, Draw 30%, CA Sarmiento 40%. The reasoning is based on H2H dominance (7-4 in wins for Sarmiento overall), recent form (Sarmiento's two wins in five vs Union's one), and the fact that Union's home form is not strong enough to make them favorites. CA Sarmiento may not be formidable travelers, but the historical edge and slightly better momentum give them the highest chance. The draw remains a realistic outcome given both sides' inconsistency.

Odds & Match Prediction

No odds were available at the time of writing, so the prediction is based purely on form, H2H, and league standings. Bookmakers typically would see this as a close call, but the numbers point to an away win being the most likely single result. Our match prediction is a 1-2 victory for CA Sarmiento, reflecting their higher win probability and the fact that Union have conceded two goals in each of their last two home defeats. A bet on Sarmiento to win or a draw no bet on the away side could offer value if odds become available.