Ulverstone - Glenorchy Knights prediction 19 July 2026

The Ulverstone vs Glenorchy Knights prediction for this NPL Tasmania match on Jul 19 at 04:30 UTC points to an away victory. Based on odds, league table positions, and recent results, Glenorchy Knights have a 53% chance of winning, while Ulverstone sit at 16% and the draw at 31%.

Team Form

Ulverstone come into this match with a poor recent record: L, W, L, L, L in their last five games. Their only win in that sequence was a 2-1 home victory over Kingborough Lions on Jul 04. The other four outings ended in defeats, including a 6-0 thrashing at Riverside Olympic and a 2-0 loss at South Hobart. The team has struggled to find consistency.

Glenorchy Knights have also been inconsistent: L, D, L, L, D in their last five matches. A 2-2 home draw with Clarence Zebras on Jul 04 and a 1-1 home draw with Riverside Olympic on Jun 13 are the only positive results. Away from home, they suffered a 2-0 loss at Kingborough Lions and a 6-1 defeat at South Hobart. The Knights have managed just one win in their last five overall.

Head-to-Head Record

The only recent meeting between these sides was on May 02, 2026, when Glenorchy Knights hosted Ulverstone and won 2-1. That gives the Knights a 1-0 edge in head-to-head wins, with no draws recorded.

League Table Positions

In the NPL Tasmania overall standings, Ulverstone are 10th with 4 points from 15 games (1 win, 1 draw, 13 losses). They have scored 12 goals and conceded 53. Glenorchy Knights sit 8th with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 10 losses), scoring 18 and conceding 30. The gap is 7 points, and both clubs are near the bottom. The away table shows Glenorchy Knights in 8th place with 3 points from 8 away matches (1 win, 0 draws, 7 losses), while Ulverstone's home record is not listed separately but reflects their overall struggle.

Win Probability: Ulverstone or Glenorchy Knights?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin, the win probabilities are: Ulverstone 16%, draw 31%, Glenorchy Knights 53%. The odds heavily favor the away side, and the head-to-head record (1-0 to Glenorchy Knights) and league table gap support that view. However, Glenorchy Knights' poor away form and Ulverstone's occasional home spark (their only win of the season came at home) keep the draw probability relatively high. The most likely outcome is a Glenorchy Knights win, but a draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Glenorchy Knights as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win are as high as 6.10, the draw ranges from 2.70 to 3.00, and an away win is priced between 1.65 and 1.77. Based on the stats, the prediction leans towards an away victory, but the value might lie in the draw market given both teams' struggles to close out games. The match is likely to be low-scoring, with Glenorchy Knights having a slight edge.