Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i - Incheon United prediction 21 July 2026

Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i vs Incheon United prediction for the K-League 1 clash on Jul 21, 2026 at 10:30 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Our analysis gives Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i a 38% win probability, Incheon United a 30% chance, and the draw a 32% likelihood.

Team Form

Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i have managed just one win in their last five matches (W1 D2 L2). They drew 2-2 away at Daejeon Citizen on Jul 18, lost 1-3 at home to Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors on Jul 11, drew 1-1 at Gwangju FC on Jul 5, lost 0-2 at Gangwon FC on May 17, and beat Jeju United 2-1 at home on May 13. Their attack has scored 6 goals in these five games, but the defense has conceded 9.

Incheon United have recorded two wins and three losses in their last five outings (W2 L3). They beat Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors 1-0 at home on Jul 18, lost 0-1 at home to Anyang on Jul 12, lost 0-1 away at Seoul on Jul 5, thrashed Gwangju FC 4-0 at home on May 16, and lost 0-1 at home to Pohang Steelers on May 12. Incheon have kept three clean sheets in this period but also failed to score in three matches.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i dominate the head-to-head with 16 wins, 14 draws, and 7 Incheon United victories in 37 meetings. However, the last five encounters have been more balanced: Ulsan won 2-1 away on Apr 11, 2026; drew 3-3 at home on Mar 17, 2024; lost 1-3 away on Nov 24, 2023; drew 0-0 at home on Oct 8, 2023; and lost 1-2 at home on Jul 12, 2023. That gives Incheon two wins, two draws, and one loss in the most recent five H2H matches.

League Table Positions

In the K-League 1 overall standings, Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i sit 4th with 28 points from 18 matches (8W, 4D, 6L), while Incheon United are 7th with 24 points (7W, 3D, 8L). At home, Ulsan have a 4-1-4 record (13 points from 9 games), ranking 4th in the home table. Incheon’s away form is solid: 3 wins, 3 draws, and only 2 losses in 8 away matches, placing them 8th in the away standings with 12 points. Ulsan have scored 14 and conceded 15 at home; Incheon have scored 11 and conceded 8 on the road.

Win Probability: Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i or Incheon United?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i 38%, draw 32%, Incheon United 30%. The bookmakers’ opening odds (2.30 home, 3.27 draw, 3.50 away) imply a 42.4% chance for a Ulsan win, but their recent poor form (one win in five) and Incheon’s competitive away record reduce that edge. The head-to-head trend also points to a closer contest. Therefore, Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i are slight favorites, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win at 2.30, a draw at 3.27, and an away win at 3.50 for this K-League 1 fixture. These odds reflect Ulsan’s historical strength and home advantage, but the value may lie in the draw or Incheon double chance. Our prediction: based on the stats, this match is likely to be tight, and a draw looks the most probable result. A 1-1 scoreline could be on the cards.