Lorca Deportiva - UCAM Murcia prediction 8 February 2026

This UCAM Murcia vs Lorca Deportiva prediction previews the Segunda Federacion match on February 8, 2026, at 16:00. Based on recent form, head-to-head records and the lack of available odds, UCAM Murcia enters as a narrow favorite with a 40% win probability, while the draw sits at 25% and Lorca Deportiva holds a 35% chance.

Team Form

UCAM Murcia’s last five matches have produced just one win: a 4-0 home victory over Atletico Malagueno on April 12. They lost to Xerez (1-0), Real Jaen (1-2), La Union Atletico (4-1) and Deportiva Minera (2-0). This stretch includes three defeats in their last five at home – a worrying trend. Defensive frailties are evident, conceding nine goals in those five outings.

Lorca Deportiva’s away form is even more concerning. In their last five matches on the road they have taken only two points – draws against Yeclano Deportivo (2-2) and Almeria B (1-1) – while losing to Deportiva Minera (1-0), Aguilas FC (2-0) and Xerez (1-0). They have failed to score in three of those five games and have not won an away match in that run.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record over the last four meetings (excluding the current fixture) strongly favors UCAM Murcia, who have won three times to Lorca Deportiva’s lone victory. There have been no draws. The most recent encounter was on September 14, 2025, when UCAM Murcia won 2-1 at home. Earlier wins came in 2021 and 2020, while Lorca’s only success came in February 2021 (1-2 away to UCAM). A 2019 friendly also ended in a 3-0 away win for UCAM. History clearly shows UCAM’s upper hand in this fixture.

Win Probability: UCAM Murcia or Lorca Deportiva?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: UCAM Murcia win 40%, draw 25%, Lorca Deportiva win 35%. This assessment is based on head-to-head dominance (UCAM won three of four past competitive meetings), home advantage, and the fact that both sides are in terrible form. UCAM’s home record (1-0-4 in last five home matches) is poor, while Lorca’s away form (0-2-3) is even worse. The historical edge for UCAM slightly outweighs the current slump, but the high draw probability reflects the real chance of a stalemate between two struggling teams.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Our prediction is therefore based entirely on statistics and form. UCAM Murcia to win is the most likely single result, but the match is too close to label a clear favorite. A draw would not be a surprise, and Lorca Deportiva could nick it if they take their limited chances. Bettors looking for tips should approach this fixture with caution.