Nairobi United - Tusker prediction 6 May 2026
Nairobi United
Tusker
Gor MahiaNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedKenya Police FCNairobi UnitedPosta RangersKariobangi SharksNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedTuskerNairobi UnitedKenya Commercial BankMathare UnitedNairobi UnitedMuranga SealNairobi UnitedPosta RangersNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedKakamega HomeboyzNairobi UnitedShabana FCNairobi UnitedMara SugarAps Bomet FCNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedUlinzi StarsAFC Leopards SCNairobi UnitedTuskerKenya Police FCTuskerAps Bomet FCUlinzi StarsTuskerBandariTuskerTuskerKenya Commercial BankNairobi UnitedTuskerUlinzi StarsTuskerTuskerMara SugarTuskerSofapakaTuskerGor MahiaTuskerKariobangi SharksKenya Police FCTuskerAFC Leopards SCTuskerTuskerKakamega HomeboyzBidco UnitedTuskerNairobi UnitedTuskerTuskerNairobi UnitedNairobi UnitedTusker| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gor Mahia | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 50:21 | +29 | 69 |
| 2 |  AFC Leopards SC | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 43:26 | +17 | 64 |
| 3 |  ASC Police | 33 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 30:20 | +10 | 54 |
| 4 |  Shabana FC | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 34:32 | +2 | 52 |
| 5 | Nairobi United | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 43:34 | +9 | 50 |
| 6 |  Kakamega Homeboyz | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 46:36 | +10 | 48 |
| 7 |  Kenya Commercial Bank | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 34:36 | -2 | 45 |
| 8 |  Mara Sugar | 33 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 29:28 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 33 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 26:25 | +1 | 44 |
| 10 |  Muranga Seal | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 40:40 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 | Tusker | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 26:31 | -5 | 44 |
| 12 |  Aps Bomet FC | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 36:34 | +2 | 43 |
| 13 |  Posta Rangers | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 31:39 | -8 | 40 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 33:37 | -4 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mathare United | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 30:35 | -5 | 38 |
| 16 |  Kariobangi Sharks | 33 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 24:33 | -9 | 35 |
| 17 |  Bidco United | 33 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 17:39 | -22 | 24 |
| 18 |  Sofapaka | 33 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 19:45 | -26 | 19 |
Tusker vs Nairobi United Prediction (May 06)
The Tusker vs Nairobi United prediction for the Premier League match on May 06, 2026, points to an away win. Nairobi United is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Tusker has a 20% chance and the draw stands at 30%. The match kicks off at 13:00 at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.
Team Form
Tusker’s recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five results read W, D, L, L, D, including a 2-1 cup win over Kenya Police FC and a 1-1 home draw with Aps Bomet FC. Away losses to Ulinzi Stars (2-0) and Bandari (1-0) exposed defensive frailties. At home, Tusker has managed just one win in their last five outings.
Nairobi United, on the other hand, are in better shape. Their last five matches show W, D, D, L, W – highlighted by an impressive 1-0 away victory at Gor Mahia and a 2-2 home draw with Posta Rangers. Away from home, they have collected two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five, proving they can compete on the road.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record strongly favors Nairobi United. In three previous meetings, Nairobi United have won twice and drawn once. Tusker have never beaten Nairobi United. The most recent clash on May 06, 2026, ended 1-0 to Nairobi United. Earlier, Nairobi United won 1-0 at Tusker in December 2025, and the teams drew 1-1 in a cup match in March 2025.
League Table Positions
In the Premier League standings, Nairobi United sit 5th with 50 points from 33 games (13 wins, 11 draws, 9 losses). Tusker are 11th with 44 points (13 wins, 5 draws, 15 losses). Nairobi United also boast a superior goal difference (+9 vs -5) and a much stronger away record: they are 4th in the away table with 28 points from 16 away matches.
Win Probability: Tusker or Nairobi United?
Based on all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Tusker 20%, Draw 30%, Nairobi United 50%. These percentages reflect Nairobi United’s clear head-to-head superiority, higher league position, and better recent form. Tusker’s poor home form and their inability to beat Nairobi United in the past heavily influence the low home win probability.
Odds & Match Prediction
No odds are currently available for this fixture. Once bookmakers release the 1X2 market, Nairobi United are expected to be the favorites. Our prediction aligns with the stats: Nairobi United are more likely to win, but the draw is a strong possibility given Tusker’s recent tendency to grind out results at home. A 1-0 or 2-1 victory for the away side is a plausible outcome.
Tusker vs Nairobi United — FAQ
- Who will win Tusker vs Nairobi United?
- Based on our analysis, Nairobi United has a 50% chance to win, a draw has a 30% chance, and Tusker has a 20% chance. Nairobi United is the favorite due to superior head-to-head record and league position.
- What is the win probability for Nairobi United?
- Nairobi United has a 50% win probability. This is based on their recent form, head-to-head dominance (2 wins and 1 draw), and higher league standing compared to Tusker.
- When is the Tusker vs Nairobi United match?
- The match is on May 06, 2026, at 13:00 local time. It will be played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi, Kenya, as part of the Premier League.
- What are the odds for the match?
- No odds are currently available for this fixture. Once bookmakers release the odds, Nairobi United is expected to be the favorite.
- What is the head-to-head record between Tusker and Nairobi United?
- In their last three meetings, Nairobi United has won twice and drawn once. Tusker has yet to beat Nairobi United. The most recent match ended 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United.