Trofense - AD Marco 09 prediction 18 January 2026
Trofense
AD Marco 09
Academica CoimbraTrofenseTrofenseVitoria Guimaraes BTrofenseAmaranteMafraTrofenseTrofenseVarzimUD SantaremTrofenseTrofenseCF Os BelenensesTrofenseAcademica CoimbraVitoria Guimaraes BTrofenseAmaranteTrofenseTrofenseMafraVarzimTrofenseTrofenseUD SantaremCF Os BelenensesTrofenseAmaranteTrofenseParedesAD Marco 09AD Marco 09Sporting Braga BAD Marco 09FafeSao Joao VerAD Marco 09AD Marco 09AD SanjoanenseFafeAD Marco 09AD SanjoanenseAD Marco 09AD Marco 09Sao Joao VerSporting Braga BAD Marco 09AD Marco 09ParedesAD Marco 09VarzimTrofenseAD Marco 09AD Marco 09ParedesSporting Braga BAD Marco 09AD Marco 09Sao Joao VerTrofenseAD Marco 09AD Marco 09Trofense| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Os Belenenses | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 27:16 | +11 | 38 |
| 2 |  Mafra | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 28:19 | +9 | 34 |
| 3 |  Vitoria Guimaraes B | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20:16 | +4 | 29 |
| 4 |  Amarante | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 19:17 | +2 | 29 |
| 5 |  Academica Coimbra | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 29:18 | +11 | 28 |
| 6 | Trofense | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 |
| 7 |  Varzim | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 26:17 | +9 | 28 |
| 8 |  Paredes | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 22:12 | +10 | 27 |
| 9 |  UD Santarem | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 15:14 | +1 | 25 |
| 10 |  Sporting Braga B | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 25 |
| 11 |  Fafe | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 23:21 | +2 | 24 |
| 12 |  Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 |  Atletico Clube de Portugal | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 14 |  Amora | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19:22 | -3 | 21 |
| 15 |  Caldas | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17:23 | -6 | 21 |
| 16 | AD Marco 09 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15:22 | -7 | 19 |
| 17 |  1 Dezembro | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13:21 | -8 | 17 |
| 18 |  Sao Joao Ver | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11:26 | -15 | 14 |
| 19 |  Sporting Covilha | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 10:24 | -14 | 14 |
| 20 |  AD Sanjoanense | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20:32 | -12 | 13 |
Trofense vs AD Marco 09 Prediction (Jan 18, 2026)
Our Trofense vs AD Marco 09 prediction for the Tercera Liga match on January 18, 2026, points to an away win for AD Marco 09, with a 40% probability. The game kicks off at 15:00 at Trofense's home ground, and the visitors arrive in far better recent form.
Team Form
Trofense are struggling badly. They have failed to win any of their last five matches (D2, L3), scoring just one goal in that run. The 0-3 defeat at Academica Coimbra and back-to-back 0-1 home losses to Mafra and Varzim highlight a lack of cutting edge. Even the two draws (1-1 vs Vitoria Guimaraes B, 0-0 vs Amarante) offered little encouragement.
AD Marco 09, by contrast, are unbeaten in five (W2, D3). They beat Sporting Braga B and Fafe both 1-0 at home, and ground out draws at Paredes (2-2), at Sao Joao Ver (0-0), and at home to AD Sanjoanense (0-0). Three clean sheets in that sequence underline their defensive solidity.
Head-to-Head Record
These sides have met only once before this season. On October 25, 2025, AD Marco 09 hosted Trofense and the match ended 1-1. That result, combined with the current form gap, suggests another tight contest is likely.
League Table Positions
Trofense sit 6th in the Tercera Liga with 28 points from 18 games (W7 D7 L4). However, their home record is modest: 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses from 9 matches. AD Marco 09 are outside the top 12, which means they have collected at most 21 points so far. Despite the lower position, their recent momentum gives them a clear edge.
Win Probability: Trofense or AD Marco 09?
Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Trofense win: 25%
- Draw: 35%
- AD Marco 09 win: 40%
These percentages are derived from recent form (last 5 matches), the head-to-head draw, league standings, and the home/away factor. Trofense's poor home results and goalless streak heavily reduce their chances, while AD Marco 09's unbeaten run and defensive strength make them the most likely winners. The draw also carries a high probability given the low-scoring patterns of both teams.
Odds & Match Prediction
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of writing. Nevertheless, the statistical picture points to an away victory. AD Marco 09 are in better shape, are harder to beat, and have already taken a point off Trofense this season. Our Trofense vs AD Marco 09 prediction is an away win, with a draw as the next most probable outcome.
Trofense vs AD Marco 09 — FAQ
- Who will win Trofense vs AD Marco 09?
- AD Marco 09 have a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Trofense have a 25% chance. Based on recent form and defensive records, AD Marco 09 are the most likely winners.
- What is the win probability for AD Marco 09?
- AD Marco 09 have a 40% probability to win. This is driven by their five-match unbeaten run (W2 D3) and Trofense's poor home form, which includes four losses in nine home games.
- When is the Trofense vs AD Marco 09 match?
- The match is on January 18, 2026, at 15:00 local time. It is a Tercera Liga fixture in Portugal.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds for Trofense vs AD Marco 09 are not currently available from bookmakers. All predictions are based on team form, head-to-head record, and league positions.