Ba Ria Vung Tau - Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II prediction 17 October 2025

The V-League 2 match between Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II and Ba Ria Vung Tau on October 17, 2025, sees Ba Ria Vung Tau as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability. Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II has struggled all season, sitting bottom of the table, while Ba Ria Vung Tau has shown better recent form and a superior head-to-head record.

Team Form

Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II comes into this match on a terrible run of five consecutive defeats. In their last five outings, they lost 2-4 to Than Quang Ninh, 0-2 to Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC, 0-8 to TDTT Bac Ninh, 1-2 to Xuan Thien Phu Tho FC Gia Dinh, and 2-3 to Binh Dinh. They have conceded 19 goals in these five matches while scoring only five, highlighting severe defensive frailties.

Ba Ria Vung Tau's form is mixed but significantly better. Their last five results read L, L, W, L, W. They lost 0-1 at home to TDTT Bac Ninh, 0-3 away to Cong An Ho Chi Minh City FC in the Cup, then beat Than Quang Ninh 1-0 at home, lost 1-3 at Binh Dinh, and won 1-0 at Dong Tam Long An. Two wins in five show they can grind out results against lower-table opposition.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors Ba Ria Vung Tau. In three previous meetings, Ba Ria Vung Tau has won two and Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II has won one, with no draws. The most recent clash before this fixture was on May 11, 2025, when Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II won 1-0 at home. However, Ba Ria Vung Tau won the two earlier encounters, including a 3-1 away victory in November 2024.

League Table Positions

Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II is rooted to the bottom of the V-League 2 table. They have played 21 matches, winning only once, drawing four, and losing 16 times, scoring 13 goals and conceding 58. Their points tally is just 7. Ba Ria Vung Tau's exact league position is not available in the provided data, but their superior form and head-to-head record suggest they are higher in the standings.

Win Probability: Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II or Ba Ria Vung Tau?

Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II win: 20%
• Draw: 20%
• Ba Ria Vung Tau win: 60%

These percentages are derived from the teams' recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh II's dreadful run of five straight losses, combined with their leaky defense, gives them a low chance of victory. Ba Ria Vung Tau's two wins in their last five, along with a 2-1 head-to-head advantage, make them the strong favorite. The 20% draw probability reflects the possibility of a stalemate, but the data overwhelmingly points to an away win.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Nevertheless, all statistical indicators make Ba Ria Vung Tau the likely winner. Our prediction: Ba Ria Vung Tau to win.