Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca prediction 19 July 2026
Chivas Guadalajara
Toluca
Correcaminos UATChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraCruz AzulCruz AzulChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraTigres UANLTigres UANLChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraTijuanaNecaxaChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraPueblaTigres UANLChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraPumas UNAMChivas GuadalajaraAtlas GuadalajaraCF Monterrey RayadosChivas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraClub LeonChivas GuadalajaraSantos LagunaAtlas GuadalajaraChivas GuadalajaraCancun FCTolucaTolucaTigres UANLPachucaTolucaTolucaLos Angeles FCTolucaPachucaLos Angeles FCTolucaTolucaClub LeonMazatlan FCTolucaClub AmericaTolucaLos Angeles GalaxyTolucaTolucaAtletico San LuisTolucaLos Angeles GalaxyQueretaroTolucaPachucaTolucaTolucaSan Diego FC| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.35 | 3.30 | 3.65 | |
| 5.50 | 8.00 | 3.60 | |
| 5.25 | 11.50 | 3.50 | |
| 4.50 | 3.10 | 3.50 | |
| 5.55 | 3.94 | 1.74 | |
| 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.65 |
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The Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara prediction for the Liga MX clash on Jul 19, 2026 (01:07 UTC) points to a tight encounter. Based on odds, team form, and head-to-head stats, we give Toluca a 35% chance of winning, the draw a 35% probability, and Chivas Guadalajara a 30% chance.
Team Form
Chivas Guadalajara (Last 5: D, L, D, W, L)
- Jul 4: Correcaminos UAT 0–0 Chivas (Friendly) – D
- May 17: Chivas 1–2 Cruz Azul (Liga MX) – L
- May 14: Cruz Azul 2–2 Chivas (Liga MX) – D
- May 10: Chivas 2–0 Tigres UANL (Liga MX) – W
- May 3: Tigres UANL 3–1 Chivas (Liga MX) – L
Chivas have managed only one win in these five, struggling to string results together. Their lone clean sheet came in the home victory over Tigres.
Toluca (Last 5: L, D, L, W, L)
- Jul 4: Cancun FC 1–0 Toluca (Friendly) – L
- May 31: Toluca 0–0 Tigres UANL (Campeones Cup) – D
- May 10: Pachuca 2–0 Toluca (Liga MX) – L
- May 7: Toluca 4–0 Los Angeles FC (Campeones Cup) – W
- May 4: Toluca 0–1 Pachuca (Liga MX) – L
Toluca have lost three of their last five, but the 4–0 demolition of LAFC shows their attacking potential. They’ve kept two clean sheets in that span.
Head-to-Head Record
The overall H2H record between Chivas Guadalajara and Toluca spans 23 meetings: Chivas 3 wins, Toluca 8 wins, and a remarkable 12 draws. In the last five encounters, Toluca hold the upper hand with three wins to Chivas’ one, plus one draw:
- Feb 28, 2026: Toluca 2–0 Chivas
- Sep 21, 2025: Chivas 0–3 Toluca
- Feb 16, 2025: Toluca 2–1 Chivas
- Jan 31, 2024: Chivas 3–2 Toluca
- Oct 1, 2023: Toluca 1–1 Chivas
The extremely high draw percentage (52%) makes a stalemate a very plausible outcome here, especially with both sides in inconsistent form.
Win Probability: Toluca or Chivas Guadalajara?
We started with average bookmaker odds (home: 1.96, draw: 2.77, away: 3.45) and removed the margin to get fair implied probabilities: Chivas 43.9%, draw 31.1%, Toluca 25.0%. Then we adjusted for recent form and the head-to-head data. Toluca’s superior recent H2H (3-1-1 in the last five) and the historically high draw rate shift the chances. We now give Toluca a 35% chance of winning, the draw also 35%, and Chivas Guadalajara a 30% chance. Home advantage at Estadio Omnilife is partly negated by Chivas’ patchy form and Toluca’s proven ability to win away in this fixture (3–0 in September 2025).
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara Prediction & Odds Analysis
Bookmakers see Chivas as narrow favourites, with average odds around 1.96 for a home win. The draw is priced at approximately 2.77, while an away victory for Toluca sits at 3.45. Those odds imply a fairly close contest, but our adjusted probabilities suggest the market underestimates the draw and Toluca’s chances. Based on the stats, the safest betting tip could be the double chance Toluca or Draw. Our prediction is that the most likely outcomes are a draw or a narrow Toluca win.
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara — FAQ
- Who will win Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara?
- Our probability model gives Toluca a 35% chance of winning, the draw a 35% chance, and Chivas Guadalajara a 30% chance. With 12 draws in 23 all‑time meetings, the stalemate is a genuine possibility, but Toluca have the slight edge based on recent head‑to‑head results.
- What is the win probability for Toluca?
- Toluca has a 35% probability of winning this match. This figure combines bookmaker odds (adjusted for margin), their strong recent head‑to‑head record (three wins in the last five encounters), and Chivas’ inconsistent home form.
- When is the Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara match?
- The match will be played on Jul 19, 2026, at 01:07 UTC (local time) at Estadio Omnilife in Jalisco, Mexico. It is a Liga MX fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- One set of bookmaker odds currently lists Chivas Guadalajara to win at 2.05, a draw at 3.86, and a Toluca win at 3.70. Odds vary across bookmakers, with average prices around 1.96 (home), 2.77 (draw), and 3.45 (away).
- What is the head‑to‑head record between Toluca and Chivas Guadalajara?
- In 23 previous meetings, Chivas have won 3 times, Toluca 8 times, and 12 matches ended in a draw. The last five fixtures show Toluca winning three, Chivas one, and one draw — including a 3–0 Toluca away win in 2025.