Tartu JK Welco Elekter - FC Tallinn prediction 18 July 2026

The Tartu JK Welco Elekter vs FC Tallinn prediction for this Esiliiga match on July 18, 2026, points to a dominant home victory. Kick-off is at 16:00, and based on our win probability analysis, Tartu JK Welco Elekter has an 80% chance of winning, with the draw at 15% and FC Tallinn at just 5%.

Team Form

Tartu JK Welco Elekter are in excellent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. They recently thrashed FC Maardu 8-1 away, drew 2-2 with Viimsi MRJK at home, and beat Nomme United 2 5-2. Their only blemish was that draw, but they have been scoring freely, netting 62 goals in 19 league games.

FC Tallinn, on the other hand, have lost four of their last five, including a 0-3 home defeat to Elva and a 1-3 loss to Flora Tallinn II. Their sole win in that run was a 4-3 home victory over Nomme United 2. They have conceded 49 goals this season, the second-worst defensive record in the league.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Tartu JK Welco Elekter. In 10 previous meetings, they have won 7, drawn 2, and lost just 1. The most recent clash on June 13, 2026, ended in a 4-0 home win for Tartu. Earlier this season, Tartu won 2-0 away. FC Tallinn’s only win came earlier, but overall, Tartu have dominated this fixture.

League Table Positions

Tartu JK Welco Elekter sit top of the Esiliiga with 45 points from 19 matches (14 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They are 13 points clear of second-placed Viimsi MRJK. At home, they are unbeaten in 9 games (6 wins, 3 draws). FC Tallinn are 10th (last) with 17 points, having won only 4 of 19 matches. Their away form has been poor, though the exact away record isn't listed in the standings, their overall struggles are evident.

Win Probability: Tartu JK Welco Elekter or FC Tallinn?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Tartu JK Welco Elekter – 80%, Draw – 15%, FC Tallinn – 5%. These numbers are derived from the bookmakers' odds (home 1.09, draw 4.33, away 11.00), which imply a 74% home win chance, but we have adjusted upward due to Tartu's dominant form, perfect home record, and the massive gap in the league table. FC Tallinn's poor defense and lowly position make an away win extremely unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are 1.09 for a Tartu JK Welco Elekter win, 4.33 for the draw, and 11.00 for an FC Tallinn victory. Bookmakers see the home side as overwhelming favorites. Our prediction: based on the stats, Tartu JK Welco Elekter should secure a comfortable win. A bet on the home team offers little value at 1.09, but the goal markets or handicaps might be worth exploring for those seeking better returns.