Safa Beirut - Tadamon Sour prediction 24 January 2026

Our Tadamon Sour vs Safa Beirut prediction for the Premier League clash on January 24, 2026, at 12:15 UTC gives Safa Beirut a strong 65% win probability. The Lebanese top-flight fixture sees a struggling Tadamon Sour host one of the form teams, and all key stats point to an away win.

Team Form

Tadamon Sour enter this match with a poor run of results: L, L, L, W, D in their last five Premier League outings. They lost 0‑3 to Al Ansar Beirut, 1‑4 at Al‑Hikma and 0‑1 at Al Nejmeh before managing a 1‑0 home win over Racing Beirut and a 1‑1 draw with Al Mabarrah. The home side has won just once in that sequence.

Safa Beirut, in contrast, are in fine shape: W, D, L, W, W. A 4‑0 thrashing of Al Mabarrah, a 1‑1 draw at Jwaaya FC, a 4‑1 loss at Al Ahed, then consecutive wins – 4‑2 at Reyady Abaseya and 1‑0 at Shabab Al Sahel – give them three wins in five. Only the defeat to third‑placed Al Ahed interrupts an otherwise impressive run.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The H2H numbers tilt heavily toward the visitors. In seven previous meetings, Tadamon Sour have never won, there has been one draw, and Safa Beirut have claimed six victories. Their most recent clashes – a 1‑1 draw in September 2025 and a 5‑2 Safa win in July 2025 – underscore the gulf. The last fixture in Tadamon Sour’s home saw Safa win 2‑0 in April 2025.

League Table Positions

Safa Beirut (listed as Safa Baku in the standings) sit 5th with 33 points from 20 games (10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses). They have a positive goal difference of +9 (26 scored, 17 conceded). Tadamon Sour are 10th, managing just 17 points from 21 matches (3 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses) and a ‑14 goal tally (12 for, 26 against). The 16‑point gap reflects the visitors’ clear superiority this season.

Win Probability: Tadamon Sour or Safa Beirut?

We combine the available data – form, H2H record, league positions and home/away split – to calculate match outcome probabilities. Tadamon Sour’s weak home record (1 win all season at home) and Safa Beirut’s strong away form (4 wins in 10 away trips) further support the favourite. Our percentages are:

• Tadamon Sour win: 10%
• Draw: 25%
• Safa Beirut win: 65%

Safa Beirut are the clear choice to take all three points. Tadamon Sour’s slim chance rests on a rare home upset, but the visitors’ dominance in the H2H and current table gap make the away win the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

No exact odds are available for this fixture, but bookmakers would price Safa Beirut as strong favourites based on the stats. The away side’s superior form, perfect recent H2H record and much higher league ranking all point to a comfortable win. Our final Tadamon Sour vs Safa Beirut prediction is a 2‑0 away victory, matching the typical scoreline seen when these teams meet.