Sturm Graz - LASK Linz prediction 22 April 2026

The Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz prediction looks at the Bundesliga clash on Apr 22 at 18:30. Our analysis gives Sturm Graz a 45% chance of winning, with a draw at 25% and LASK Linz at 30%. Home advantage and recent form tilt the balance slightly.

Team Form

Sturm Graz have hit solid form in competitive matches. Their last two Bundesliga outings saw a 2-0 home win over Rapid Wien and a 4-2 away success at TSV Hartberg. In friendlies, results were mixed: a 5-0 victory against Mura, a heavy 2-6 loss to LNZ Cherkasy, and a 2-2 draw with Kosice FC. Overall, three wins in five show a positive trend, especially at home.

LASK Linz enter this match with three wins in their last five. Two of those were big friendly wins against lower-league sides SPG Hogo Wels (5-0) and Bad Schallerbach (6-0). However, they lost friendlies against Ingolstadt 04 (0-2) and Dynamo Kyiv (0-2). Their most recent Bundesliga result was an impressive 3-0 away win at Austria Wien, so they carry momentum despite the mixed friendly results.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz, with 21 wins to LASK Linz's 14, plus 9 draws. Recent meetings have been tight. The two encounters in April 2026 both ended 1-1, showing little between the sides. Before that, LASK Linz won 3-1 at Sturm Graz in November 2025, but Sturm Graz had won 2-0 in Linz in August 2025. At this ground, the last five H2H matches have produced two Sturm wins, two draws and one LASK win.

Win Probability: Sturm Graz or LASK Linz?

We calculate the win probability for this Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz prediction as follows:

• Sturm Graz win: 45%
• Draw: 25%
• LASK Linz win: 30%

These probabilities are based on a combination of factors. Sturm Graz have a strong home record and are on a good league run. The head-to-head numbers also give them the edge historically. LASK Linz's away form in the Bundesliga is solid, but their friendly defeats raise questions. The recent two draws in H2H suggest a close contest, so a draw cannot be ruled out. Overall, Sturm Graz emerge as slight favourites to claim all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this match are not available at the time of writing. Once the markets open, we expect Sturm Graz to be priced as the narrow favourite based on home advantage and head-to-head dominance. Using only the stats available, our Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz prediction is a home win or a draw, with Sturm Graz the more likely victor. A 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline fits the data patterns. LASK Linz are certainly capable of an upset, but the probability model leans towards the hosts.