Stjarnan Women - Thor Akureyri Women prediction 14 July 2026

The Stjarnan Women vs Thor Akureyri Women prediction for July 14, 2026, in the Icelandic Premier League Women points to a home win, with Stjarnan given a 58% probability of victory. The match kicks off at 18:00 at Stjarnan's home ground, and bookmakers have installed the hosts as clear favorites based on recent form and head-to-head trends.

Team Form

Stjarnan Women come into this fixture unbeaten in their last five matches (W3 D2). They drew 1-1 away at Valur Reykjavik, beat Fram Women 3-0 at home, drew 1-1 at Grindavik in the Cup, won 3-1 at Breidablik, and defeated IBV Vestmannaeyja 2-0 at home. That run shows defensive solidity and an ability to score consistently.

Thor Akureyri Women have seen their form dip with two straight defeats. Their last five results: a 1-0 home win over Grindavik, a 2-0 home win against Throttur Reykjavik, a 0-0 draw at Valur, a 4-6 home loss to Vikingur, and a 2-3 away loss at Fram. The back-to-back losses, conceding nine goals in two games, raise questions about their defensive shape.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, the head-to-head record is closely balanced: Stjarnan have 9 wins, Thor have 11, and 10 matches ended in draws. However, recent meetings favor the home side. In the last five encounters, Stjarnan won twice (4-1 away in the Cup on May 15, 2026, and 3-1 away in 2023), Thor won once (1-0 at home in May 2025), and there were two draws (2-2 in May 2026 and 4-1 Stjarnan home win in September 2025). The most recent clash—a 4-1 Stjarnan victory—underlines their current edge.

League Table Positions

Stjarnan Women sit 5th in the Premier League Women with 25 points from 17 matches (8W, 1D, 8L). Thor Akureyri are 7th with 21 points (7W, 0D, 10L). The home/away split is even more telling: Stjarnan are 3rd in the home table (6W, 1D, 2L, 18 goals scored, 13 conceded), while Thor rank 6th in the away table (3W, 0D, 5L, 16 scored, 20 conceded). Stjarnan’s home strength contrasts sharply with Thor’s travel struggles.

Win Probability: Stjarnan or Thor?

Based on the available data—odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions—the win probabilities are as follows: Stjarnan Women have a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Thor Akureyri Women have a 17% chance. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 1.56, draw 2.88, away 4.53), normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted upward for Stjarnan due to their superior recent form, strong home record, and Thor’s poor away performances. The conclusion is clear: Stjarnan are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Stjarnan Women as the firm favorite. The average odds across six bookmakers are 1.56 for a home win, 2.88 for the draw, and 4.53 for an away win. These odds imply a high probability of a Stjarnan victory, and our analysis supports that view. Taking into account the form guide, H2H trends, and the home advantage, the Stjarnan Women vs Thor Akureyri Women prediction is a home win. For betting tips, the 1.56 odds may not offer huge value, but a Stjarnan win with a -1 handicap or a total goals bet could be worth exploring, given Thor’s recent defensive leaks.