St Mochtas - Ballymun prediction 29 April 2026

St Mochtas vs Ballymun prediction for the Leinster Senior League matchup on April 29, 2026. Based on recent form and head-to-head statistics, St Mochtas enters this fixture as the clear favorite with a 70% win probability. The match kicks off at 18:45 and will be played at St Mochtas' home ground.

Team Form

St Mochtas have been in solid form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. They started with a 0-0 home draw against Lucan United, then suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Kilbarrack United, but bounced back with three consecutive victories: a 3-2 win at Finglas Utd, a 4-0 home thrashing of Killester Donnycarney, and a wild 6-5 triumph at Bangor Celtic. Over those five matches, they scored 13 goals and conceded 10, showing attacking firepower but occasional defensive lapses. At home, they are unbeaten in two of their last three, with the 4-0 win demonstrating their capability.

Ballymun, on the other hand, are struggling badly. They have lost four of their last five matches, managing only a 4-1 home win over Usher Celtic on May 6. Since then, they lost 1-5 to Wayside Celtic, 8-1 at Bangor Celtic, 0-4 at home to Saint Francis, and 5-3 at UCD Dublin 2. In those five games, they conceded a staggering 23 goals (an average of 4.6 per match) while scoring only 9. Away from home, they have been particularly poor, losing both recent away fixtures by convincing margins. Their defense is a major concern heading into this match.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings between these sides, St Mochtas have won five, Ballymun have won one, and there has been one draw. The most recent encounters prior to this fixture saw St Mochtas dominate: a 3-0 away win in November 2025, a 3-1 victory at Ballymun in August 2022, and a 5-0 away win in August 2020. Ballymun's only success came in May 2023, a 2-1 away win in the Leinster Senior Cup. St Mochtas have scored 14 goals in those four matches while conceding just 3, underlining their superiority in this fixture. The head-to-head record heavily favors the home side, even though Ballymun won the last meeting at St Mochtas' ground in 2023.

Win Probability: St Mochtas or Ballymun?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: St Mochtas win – 70%, draw – 20%, Ballymun win – 10%. These numbers are derived from the teams' recent form, head-to-head dominance, and the home advantage. St Mochtas have won three of their last five and boast a 5-1-1 head-to-head record against Ballymun, while Ballymun have lost four of their last five and concede heavily. The most likely outcome is a comfortable home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture at the time of writing. However, our analysis strongly points to St Mochtas as the winner. Ballymun's defensive frailties and poor away form make it difficult to see them getting a result. Our prediction: St Mochtas to win, possibly with a clean sheet given Ballymun's attacking struggles. The 70% probability reflects the clear gap between the two sides.