York City - Southend United prediction 17 January 2026

Southend United vs York City prediction for the National League match on Jan 17 at 17:30. York City is the clear favourite with a 60% chance to win, based on league table dominance, recent form, and a superior head-to-head record.

Team Form

Southend United come into this fixture with mixed results: D, L, W, L, W in their last five matches. Their most recent five games include a home draw against Wealdstone (0-0) in the FA Trophy, a loss at Scunthorpe United, a home win over Wealdstone (2-1), a narrow 3-4 defeat at Hartlepool United, and a 6-2 away win at Halifax Town.

York City are in superb form, recording W, D, W, W, W. They beat Barnsley 2-1 in a friendly, drew 1-1 at Rochdale, thrashed Yeovil Town 3-0 at home, won 1-0 at Tamworth, and edged Altrincham 2-1. That's four wins and one draw, underlining their strength.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings before this match, Southend United have failed to beat York City, managing one draw (0-0 at home in August 2025) and three defeats. The previous encounters: York City won 3-0 at home (Dec 2024), 1-0 away (Feb 2024), and 3-0 at home (Sep 2023). York City have kept three clean sheets in those four matches.

League Table Positions

York City sit top of the National League with 108 points from 46 games (33 wins, 9 draws, 4 losses, +73 goal difference). Southend United are 6th with 81 points (23 wins, 12 draws, 11 losses). The gap of 27 points highlights the gulf in consistency.

At home, Southend United are 6th (13 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses); York City boast the best away record in the division: 1st with 16 wins, 5 draws, only 2 losses, and 45 goals scored on the road.

Win Probability: Southend United or York City?

Using the available data—recent form, head-to-head, league standings, and home/away records—we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Southend United win: 15%
• Draw: 25%
• York City win: 60%

York City's dominant away form, top-of-the-table position, and historical edge over Southend United make them the overwhelming favourite. Southend United's home resilience (only three home losses) gives them a puncher's chance, but the recent head-to-head clearly favours the visitors.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this fixture were not listed in the data. Nevertheless, based on the stats, York City are the side most likely to take all three points. The safest prediction points towards an away win or a draw no bet on York City. A low-scoring contest could be on the cards given the last two meetings ended 1-1 and 0-0.