Southport - Southend United prediction 28 March 2026

Southend United vs Southport prediction for the FA Trophy match on March 28, 2026, at 15:00. Southend United is the favorite with a 55% win probability, while the draw is rated at 25% and Southport at 20%.

Team Form

Southend United’s recent form reads D, L, W, L, W. They have won two of their last five matches across all competitions, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw with Wealdstone in the FA Trophy on May 17. Before that, a 1-0 away defeat to Scunthorpe United was followed by a 2-1 home win over Wealdstone, a 4-3 away loss to Hartlepool United, and a stunning 6-2 away victory at Halifax Town. At home, Southend are unbeaten in their last two matches, with a win and a draw, suggesting they are tough to beat at home.

Southport’s form is W, L, L, L, W, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded in their last five games. They have also won two of their last five, but their away form is a major concern. Southport lost three of their last four away matches: 2-1 at Macclesfield Town, 4-0 at AFC Fylde, and 2-1 at Leamington. Their only away victory came at Curzon Ashton (3-1). At home, they beat AFC Telford United 2-0 in their most recent fixture. The team has struggled for consistency on the road, which could be a decisive factor in this cup tie.

Head-to-Head Record

Southend United and Southport have met only once before in the FA Trophy. That match took place on January 4, 2025, and ended in a 1-0 home victory for Southend United. The solitary goal was enough to separate the sides, and Southend will look to replicate that defensive solidity. The total goals in that fixture was just one, indicating a tight contest.

League Table Context

Southend United competes in the National League, the fifth tier of English football, while Southport plays in the National League North, one division below. This gap is significant; National League sides generally have stronger squads and better resources. The difference in league level often translates to an advantage in cup competitions, and it is a key reason why Southend is favored.

Win Probability: Southend United or Southport?

Based on the available data—team form, head-to-head history, home advantage, and the league gap—we calculate the probabilities as follows: Southend United has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Southport has a 20% chance. Southend’s higher league status, solid home form, and previous H2H win all point to a home victory. Southport’s poor away record and lower division standing make an upset unlikely, though the draw remains a possible outcome. The probability model favors a home win, but the FA Trophy is known for surprises.

Odds & Match Prediction

No odds are currently available for this fixture. However, if bookmakers were to price this match, Southend United would likely be the clear favorite. Our prediction is a Southend United win, in line with the 55% probability. We suggest a 2-1 scoreline, but the most important takeaway is that Southend is the team to beat. Backing the home win is the best betting tip based on the stats.