Siauliai Futbolo Akademija - FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction 24 July 2026

The Siauliai Futbolo Akademija vs FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction for July 24, 2026, in the Lithuanian A Lyga sees the visitors as the favourites, with a 40% win probability. The match kicks off at 16:00, and bookmakers have priced FK Hegelmann Litauen as the narrow favourite based on their superior head-to-head record and league position.

Team Form

Siauliai Futbolo Akademija enter this fixture in poor form, having lost four of their last five matches (L, L, L, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 0-4 home defeat to FK Kauno Zalgiris on July 18. The only win in that stretch came in the Cup against Dziugas Telsiai (2-1 on June 24). Defensively, they have conceded 14 goals in those five games, highlighting major issues at the back. At home, they have lost three of their last four league matches, failing to score in two of them.

FK Hegelmann Litauen are also struggling for consistency, with no wins in their last five (L, D, D, L, D). Their last match was a 3-0 away loss to Paide Linnameeskond in the UEFA Conference League qualifiers. In the league, they have drawn three of their last four, including a 1-1 at Baltija Panevezys. While they are hard to beat, a lack of cutting edge has seen them win just once in their last nine away league games. Their away form in the A Lyga shows 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours FK Hegelmann Litauen. In the last 20 meetings across all competitions, Hegelmann have won 12, Siauliai have won 2, and 6 ended in draws. The most recent encounter on May 9, 2026, finished 1-1. However, Hegelmann won the previous three, including a 5-2 victory in July 2025 and a 3-1 Cup win in August 2025. Siauliai’s last win over Hegelmann came earlier, but overall, the away side has dominated this fixture, scoring 5 goals in one of those wins.

League Table Positions

In the A Lyga standings, FK Hegelmann Litauen sit 7th with 19 points from 19 games (3 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses). Siauliai Futbolo Akademija are 9th with just 13 points from 20 matches (2 wins, 7 draws, 11 losses). The gap of 6 points and the significant goal difference (Hegelmann -9 vs Siauliai -23) underline the visitors’ advantage. Siauliai have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 41 goals. At home, Siauliai are not in the top eight of the home table, while Hegelmann’s away form has been poor (7th in away table with 6 points from 9 games).

Win Probability: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija or FK Hegelmann Litauen?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija has a 33% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and FK Hegelmann Litauen has a 40% chance. The odds imply an away win probability of around 37.7%, but Hegelmann’s historical dominance in this fixture and Siauliai’s terrible home form push that figure slightly higher. The draw probability remains significant given Hegelmann’s tendency to draw matches (10 draws in 19 league games). This Siauliai Futbolo Akademija vs FK Hegelmann Litauen prediction therefore leans towards an away win, but with a strong possibility of a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for the 1X2 market are: home win at 2.52, draw at 3.35, and away win at 2.38. Bookmakers see FK Hegelmann Litauen as the favourite, but the margins are tight. Our prediction aligns with the stats: an away win is the most likely outcome, but a draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the value may lie in the draw or an away win, given Siauliai’s defensive frailties. However, always gamble responsibly.