Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki prediction 29 April 2026

Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki prediction for the J League match on Apr 29, 2026. Based on head-to-head record and recent form, V-Varen Nagasaki enters this game as the favorite with a 40% win probability. Shimizu S-Pulse hopes to turn around a poor run of results at their home ground, IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Team Form

Shimizu S-Pulse come into this match without a win in their last five outings (L, D, L, L, D). They lost 0-3 to Yokohama F Marinos, drew 1-1 with Yokohama F Marinos, lost 1-2 to Gamba Osaka, lost 0-2 to Fagiano Okayama, and drew 1-1 with Avispa Fukuoka. Over that period, they scored only 3 goals and conceded 11, showing clear struggles at both ends.

V-Varen Nagasaki's recent form is slightly better: W, W, L, D, L. They beat Mito Hollyhock 1-0 away and 1-0 at home, lost 0-1 to Kyoto Sanga, drew 2-2 with Vissel Kobe, and lost 2-3 to Cerezo Osaka. With two wins in five, they have managed 6 goals and conceded 6, pointing to a more resilient side.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, V-Varen Nagasaki dominates this fixture. In 11 previous meetings, V-Varen Nagasaki has won 6 times, Shimizu S-Pulse twice, and 3 games ended in draws. The most recent clash came on Apr 5, 2026, when Shimizu S-Pulse pulled off a surprise 3-0 away win. However, before that, V-Varen Nagasaki had won 4-1 and 3-2, with one 1-1 draw. The overall H2H record strongly leans towards the away side.

League Table Positions

Shimizu S-Pulse sits 12th in the J League with 24 points from 18 matches (8 wins, 10 losses). Their home form is not among the league's top eight, indicating vulnerability at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. V-Varen Nagasaki does not appear in the top 12, meaning they are placed lower in the table. Despite the league gap, the visitors have historically performed well in this matchup.

Win Probability: Shimizu S-Pulse or V-Varen Nagasaki?

We assessed all available data—team form, head-to-head record, league positions, and home advantage—to calculate the outcome probabilities. Shimizu S-Pulse has a 30% chance of winning, the draw stands at 30%, and V-Varen Nagasaki has a 40% chance. The numbers reflect Shimizu's prolonged winless streak, their weak home displays, and V-Varen Nagasaki's superior H2H record, even though the home side holds a higher league rank.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds are not available in the data, but our analysis indicates V-Varen Nagasaki is the more likely winner. Taking into account the stats, the best betting tip is to back V-Varen Nagasaki or the draw. Shimizu S-Pulse will need a major improvement to overturn the head-to-head disadvantage.