Shijiazhuang Gongfu - Yanbian Longding prediction 17 July 2026

The Shijiazhuang Gongfu vs Yanbian Longding prediction for this China League One match on Jul 17, 2026, points to a tightly contested affair. Based on bookmaker odds and team form, Yanbian Longding holds a 35% chance of winning, while Shijiazhuang Gongfu has a 28% chance, and the draw is the most likely outcome at 37%.

Team Form

Shijiazhuang Gongfu come into the match in poor shape. Their last five results read L, L, W, L, D, with only one win in that span. The recent defeats include a 2-0 loss at Guandong GZ Power FC and a 2-1 loss at Ningbo Professional FC Huilong, both in the league. Their only victory came at home against Nanjing Fengfan (2-1), but they were beaten 2-0 at home by Shanghai Shenhua in the FA Cup and drew 1-1 at home with Suzhou Jinfu Dongwu. With just one win in their last five outings, the hosts are struggling for consistency.

Yanbian Longding, on the other hand, are in much better form. Their last five results are W, W, W, L, D, featuring three wins. They recorded a dominant 3-1 home win over Suzhou Jinfu Dongwu, a 3-0 home thrashing of Heilongjiang Ice City FC, and a convincing 2-0 away victory at Foshan Nanshi. The only setback was a 0-2 defeat at Nantong Zhiyun, and they drew 2-2 at home to Changchun Yatai. With three wins in five, Yanbian are clearly the form side heading into this clash.

Head-to-Head Record

Shijiazhuang Gongfu have never lost to Yanbian Longding in four previous meetings (2 wins, 2 draws). The most recent encounter, on Aug 2, 2025 at Yanbian, ended in a 1-1 stalemate. Earlier that season, Shijiazhuang won 2-0 at home on Apr 13, 2025. The historical record gives Shijiazhuang a psychological edge, especially at home, where they have won one and drawn one of the two H2H matches.

League Table Positions

Yanbian Longding are enjoying a strong campaign, sitting 3rd in the China League One table with 24 points from 14 matches (6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses). They have been particularly impressive on the road, ranking 2nd in the away standings with 13 points from 7 away games (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Shijiazhuang Gongfu’s exact league position is not available in the provided data, but their poor recent form suggests they are likely in the lower half of the table.

Win Probability: Shijiazhuang Gongfu or Yanbian Longding?

After normalizing the odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the match outcome probabilities are as follows:

• Shijiazhuang Gongfu win: 28%
• Draw: 37%
• Yanbian Longding win: 35%

The draw is the most probable result, reflecting the bookmakers’ view and Yanbian’s slightly superior quality. However, Yanbian Longding are the slight favorites to win the match if there is a decisive result, given their strong league position and recent form. Shijiazhuang’s unbeaten H2H record and home advantage prevent a higher away win probability, but their poor current form limits their chances to around 28%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a draw as the most likely outcome, with odds as short as 1.88. The home win odds range from 3.20 to 3.70, while the away win is priced between 2.19 and 2.82. One bookmaker offers an outlier line of 3.70 for a home win, 3.13 for a draw, and 2.19 for an away win. Overall, the market implies a draw probability of around 41% before removing the margin, confirming the expectation of a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Based on the stats, our prediction is that the match is most likely to end in a draw. Yanbian Longding are the marginal favorites to win, but Shijiazhuang Gongfu’s solid H2H record and the home factor make a stalemate the standout pick. For betting tips, consider the draw (1.88–3.13) or the double chance on Yanbian, but always bet responsibly.