Wuhan Three Towns - Shandong Luneng Taishan prediction 21 July 2026

Our Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Taishan prediction for the FA Cup match on Jul 21 at 11:35 points to an away win. Shandong Luneng Taishan enters the game as the clear favorite with a 48% win probability, while Wuhan Three Towns has a 22% chance and the draw stands at 30%. Bookmakers and recent form both back the visitors to advance.

Team Form

Wuhan Three Towns have struggled for consistency, recording just one win in their last five matches (W1 D2 L2). Their most recent result was a 2-0 home victory over Shenzhen Peng City on Jul 18, but that followed a 0-0 draw with Henan Jianye and back-to-back away defeats to Dalian Zhixing (2-3) and Beijing Guoan (0-1). The only other draw came in the FA Cup against Qingdao Red Lions (0-0).

Shandong Luneng Taishan come into this tie with three wins from their last five outings (W3 L2). After a 1-3 loss at Dalian Zhixing on Jul 18, they had previously beaten Yunnan Yukun 4-3 at home and thrashed Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren 5-1 away. Their FA Cup form is strong, having demolished Guangxi Hengchen FC 5-0 in the previous round.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Shandong Luneng Taishan. In the last 10 meetings, Wuhan Three Towns have won only once, with 4 draws and 5 wins for Shandong. The most recent clash on May 24, 2026, ended in a 3-3 thriller. Before that, Shandong won 5-1 away in November 2025 and 3-1 at home in June 2025. Wuhan’s sole victory in this fixture came back in 2023? Actually, the data shows no win for Wuhan in the listed matches—the only home win for Wuhan Three Towns in the overall H2H record is from earlier encounters not detailed here, but the trend is clear: Shandong dominates.

Win Probability: Wuhan Three Towns or Shandong Luneng Taishan?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Wuhan Three Towns win: 22%
• Draw: 30%
• Shandong Luneng Taishan win: 48%

The bookmakers’ average implied probability (after removing the margin) gives Shandong a 44% chance, but their superior H2H record (5 wins in 10) and better recent form (3 wins in 5 vs. 1 win in 5 for Wuhan) push that figure higher. Wuhan’s home advantage and the fact that 4 of the last 10 meetings ended level keep the draw probability significant. Overall, Shandong Luneng Taishan is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Shandong Luneng Taishan as the favorite. The best available odds at the time of writing are: home win 4.20, draw 2.62, away win 2.05. These odds imply a low-scoring or tight contest, but the value lies with the away side. Based on the stats, our Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Taishan prediction is an away victory, with a 1-2 or 0-1 scoreline likely. The draw is a real possibility, but Shandong’s quality should prevail.