Dagon Star United - Shan United FC prediction 23 January 2026

The Shan United FC vs Dagon Star United prediction for this National League clash on Jan 23, 2026, points clearly towards the home side. Shan United FC enters the match with a 65% win probability, while a draw stands at 25% and Dagon Star United holds just a 10% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

Shan United FC are on an impeccable run, having won their last five matches in all competitions. Their recent results include a 1‑0 win over Hantharwady United (Mar 18), a 2‑1 victory against Mahar Sagaing United FC (Mar 12), and a massive 5‑0 thrashing of Yarmanya United FC (Mar 08). Away from home they also demolished Rakhine United 6‑0 and Ispe FC 6‑1, showcasing both attacking firepower and defensive solidity.

Dagon Star United’s away form has been mixed. Their last five away results show a 4‑0 defeat at Yangon United (Mar 18), a 2‑2 draw at Thitsar Arman (Mar 09), and three consecutive wins: 1‑0 at Mahar Sagaing United FC (Mar 03), 1‑0 at home against Rakhine United (Feb 24) and 2‑1 at home versus Yadanarbon (Feb 19). While they have managed to pick up wins, the heavy loss to a top‑side like Yangon United raises questions about their ability to handle elite opposition on the road.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The head‑to‑head record heavily favours Shan United FC. In the last four meetings prior to this fixture, Shan United won three and drew one. The most recent clash on Oct 18, 2025, ended 4‑0 to Shan United. Dagon Star United have never beaten Shan United in this span, with the other results being a 0‑0 draw (Feb 01, 2025) and Shan United wins of 3‑1 (Oct 30, 2023) and 3‑2 (Jun 06, 2023). Historically, Shan United have dominated this matchup with 4 wins and 1 draw across all available head‑to‑head data.

League Table Positions

Shan United FC sit top of the National League with 55 points from 21 matches (17 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses). They have scored 65 goals and conceded only 10, boasting the best defensive record in the division. At home they are equally dominant: 8 wins and 3 draws from 11 games, scoring 29 and conceding 6.

Dagon Star United are third on the table with 39 points from 21 matches (11‑6‑4). Their away record reads 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9 games, with 19 goals scored and 13 conceded. While a respectable third place, the 16‑point gap to Shan United underlines the difference in quality between the two sides.

Win Probability: Shan United FC or Dagon Star United?

Based on the available data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Shan United FC win – 65%, draw – 25%, Dagon Star United win – 10%. The reasoning is built upon the perfect recent form of the home side, a historically one‑sided head‑to‑head record, and the strong home/away statistics from the league table. Shan United’s defensive stability (only 10 goals conceded all season) makes a Dagon Star upset extremely unlikely. Even though Dagon Star have shown some away resilience, their capitulation against the other top team Yangon United suggests they will struggle to contain Shan United’s relentless attack. Therefore, the conclusion is clear: Shan United FC are much more likely to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific odds were available for this fixture at the time of writing, but market expectations would almost certainly mirror our probability assessment. Bookmakers would see Shan United as the clear favourite, with the draw and away win priced as longer shots. The best betting tip based on stats is to back Shan United FC to win, given their 65% implied probability and the enormous gulf in both form and class. A cautious alternative could be the draw‑no‑bet market if you seek insurance, but outright home win remains the most likely outcome.