Sestri Levante - Derthona prediction 11 January 2026
Sestri Levante
DerthonaSestri Levante
Unione Sanremo (Sanremese)Celle VarazzeSestri LevanteSestri LevanteAstiBielleseSestri LevanteSestri LevanteSSD NovaromentinASD Chisola CalcioSestri LevanteSestri LevanteAsd Cairese 1919Valenzana MadoSestri LevanteSestri LevanteLavagneseVadoSestri LevanteSestri LevanteGozzanoClub Milano SsdSestri LevanteSestri LevanteLigornaSestri LevanteAsd Imperia 1923Citta di VareseSestri LevanteDerthonaGozzanoDerthonaAsd Imperia 1923Citta di VareseDerthonaUnione Sanremo (Sanremese)DerthonaDerthonaCelle VarazzeSSD NovaromentinDerthonaDerthonaAstiAsd Cairese 1919DerthonaDerthonaBielleseLavagneseDerthonaDerthonaASD Chisola CalcioGozzanoDerthonaDerthonaValenzana MadoLigornaDerthonaDerthonaVadoSestri LevanteDerthonaDerthonaSestri LevanteSestri LevanteDerthonaDerthonaSestri LevanteSestri LevanteDerthonaSestri LevanteDerthona| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vado | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 69:24 | +45 | 78 |
| 2 |  Ligorna | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 64:26 | +38 | 72 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 48:29 | +19 | 57 |
| 4 |  Citta di Varese | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 43:43 | 0 | 56 |
| 5 |  ASD Chisola Calcio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 44:36 | +8 | 55 |
| 6 | Sestri Levante | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 54:34 | +20 | 54 |
| 7 |  Unione Sanremo (Sanremese) | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 37:30 | +7 | 49 |
| 8 |  Valenzana Mado | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 45 |
| 9 |  Celle Varazze | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 41:47 | -6 | 44 |
| 10 |  AC Saluzzo | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48:44 | +4 | 43 |
| 11 |  Club Milano Ssd | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 43:49 | -6 | 42 |
| 12 |  Asd Imperia 1923 | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 36:44 | -8 | 41 |
| 13 |  Asd Cairese 1919 | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 29:34 | -5 | 40 |
| 14 | Derthona | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 36:46 | -10 | 40 |
| 15 |  Gozzano | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 37:42 | -5 | 39 |
| 16 |  Asti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32:42 | -10 | 35 |
| 17 |  Lavagnese | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 32:52 | -20 | 27 |
| 18 |  SSD Novaromentin | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 26:82 | -56 | 21 |
Sestri Levante vs Derthona Prediction (Jan 11)
The Serie D match between Sestri Levante and Derthona on January 11, 2026, at 14:00 sees Sestri Levante as the favorite with a 45% win probability. Despite their strong head-to-head record, recent home struggles lower their chances against a Derthona side with solid away form.
Team Form
Sestri Levante’s recent form is poor: they lost four of their last five matches—0-2 vs Unione Sanremo, 0-1 at Celle Varazze, 1-2 vs Asti, and 0-2 at Biellese—with their only win coming against SSD Novaromentin (5-2) in early April.
Derthona’s last five results show two draws, two losses, and one win: 1-1 vs Gozzano, 0-0 vs Asd Imperia 1923, 0-1 at Citta di Varese, 2-1 at Unione Sanremo, and a 0-3 home loss to Celle Varazze. They are without a win in their last three outings.
Head-to-Head Record
Sestri Levante dominate the H2H with 5 wins and 1 draw in 6 encounters; Derthona have never beaten them. This season’s away fixture ended 3-1 to Sestri Levante. The only draw was 1-1 in April 2022.
League Table Positions
Sestri Levante sit 6th in the overall Serie D table with 54 points from 34 games (15 wins, 9 draws, 10 losses). Derthona are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position. Notably, Derthona hold the 4th-best away record (9W 2D 6L, 29 pts), while Sestri Levante’s home record is modest—just 5 wins from 17 home matches.
Win Probability: Sestri Levante or Derthona?
Based on head-to-head history (Sestri Levante won 5 of 6 meetings), overall league position (6th vs outside top 12), and home/away splits, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Sestri Levante: 45%
- Draw: 30%
- Derthona: 25%
Sestri Levante’s overwhelming H2H edge gives them the favorite tag, but 4 losses in their last 5 matches and a weak home record (only 5 home wins all season) significantly reduce their chance. Derthona’s away record (9 wins from 17) keeps them competitive, making a draw a realistic outcome. Overall, Sestri Levante are more likely to win, but the probability gap is not wide.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers’ odds were not available at the time of writing that could be included here. Based purely on the statistics, our match prediction is a cautious home win for Sestri Levante. The poor form of both sides and Derthona’s away resilience suggest a low-scoring affair, with a draw also a strong possibility.
Sestri Levante vs Derthona — FAQ
- Who will win Sestri Levante vs Derthona?
- Sestri Levante have a 45% chance to win, the draw is at 30%, and Derthona have a 25% chance. Sestri Levante’s superior head-to-head record makes them favorites, but their current poor form and weak home performances leave the match open.
- What is the win probability for Sestri Levante?
- Sestri Levante have a 45% win probability. This reflects their 5 wins in 6 head-to-head meetings and higher league position (6th), but is lowered by a run of 4 losses in their last 5 matches and only 5 home wins all season.
- When is the Sestri Levante vs Derthona match?
- The match is on January 11, 2026, kicking off at 14:00 local time. It is a Serie D fixture in Italy.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds for this match were not available at the time of writing. For the latest betting lines, check with your preferred bookmaker closer to kick-off.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sestri Levante and Derthona?
- In 6 previous meetings, Sestri Levante have won 5 and drawn 1. Derthona have never beaten Sestri Levante. This season’s away fixture ended 3-1 to Sestri Levante.