Portimonense II - Serpa prediction 1 March 2026

Serpa vs Portimonense II prediction for the Campeonato de Portugal fixture on March 1, 2026 (15:00 kick-off). Both teams come into this match in alarming form, but Serpa’s home advantage and superior head-to-head record give them a 40% win probability. A draw is rated at 30%, and Portimonense II have a 30% chance of pulling off an away victory.

Team Form

Serpa have lost all five of their most recent Campeonato de Portugal matches, a run that has seen them spiral down the standings. They have scored only 4 goals while conceding 11, and they failed to keep a single clean sheet. Their two home games in this sequence both ended in defeats without scoring – a 0-1 loss to Alverca B and a 0-3 thrashing by Juventude Evora. The attack has been blunt, and the defense frequently breached.

• Apr 18: Clube Oriental de Lisboa 2–1 Serpa (A)
• Apr 12: Serpa 0–1 Alverca B (H)
• Apr 04: O Elvas CAD 3–2 Serpa (A)
• Mar 22: Serpa 0–3 Juventude Evora (H)
• Mar 15: Louletano 2–1 Serpa (A)

Portimonense II have fared marginally better by managing a single point from their last five outings. That came in a 0-0 away draw against CF Vasco da Gama Vidigueira. Otherwise, it has been four heavy losses, conceding 12 goals and scoring just once in those defeats. They were beaten 3-1 at home by GD Lagoa, 3-0 at home by Atletico Malveira, and suffered a 4-0 drubbing away at Alverca B. Their only away point was the goalless draw, showing a fraction more resilience on the road.

• Apr 18: Sintrense 2–1 Portimonense II (A)
• Apr 12: Portimonense II 1–3 GD Lagoa (H)
• Apr 04: Portimonense II 0–3 Atletico Malveira (H)
• Mar 29: Alverca B 4–0 Portimonense II (A)
• Mar 22: CF Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 0–0 Portimonense II (A)

Head-to-Head Record

There have been only two meetings between Serpa and Portimonense II, both in the current Campeonato de Portugal season. The head-to-head is tight, with Serpa yet to lose after one win and one draw:

• Mar 01, 2026: Portimonense II 0–0 Serpa
• Oct 26, 2025: Serpa 1–0 Portimonense II

Notably, the only previous clash at Serpa’s ground ended in a 1-0 home victory. With just one goal across two matches, the teams have historically produced low-scoring, cagey affairs.

Win Probability: Serpa or Portimonense II?

Our probability assessment weighs the only reliable indicators: the most recent form, head-to-head results, and the home advantage factor. Since both clubs are in a deep crisis, no single factor is overwhelming. The calculation breaks down as follows:

• Serpa win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Portimonense II win: 30%

Serpa get a modest boost from playing at home and from their unbeaten H2H record. However, their five-match losing streak and an inability to score at home undermine that advantage. Portimonense II have at least picked up a point recently, but their defensive record is even worse. Consequently, the probabilities reflect a contest where all three outcomes are very much on the table, with a low-scoring draw a distinct possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

No pre-match odds were available for this fixture from any major bookmaker. If markets were to be priced, Serpa would likely be installed as marginal favourites given home advantage and the head-to-head edge, but the odds would probably offer value on the draw or the away side.

Match prediction: Serpa to win. This is a cautious call based on the stats. Given the low probability (40%), bettors may wish to employ a “double chance” on Serpa or Draw to cover the high likelihood of a stalemate. With only one goal in two H2H games and both teams struggling to score, the under 2.5 goals market could also attract interest.