SD Aucas Quito - Independiente Del Valle prediction 16 July 2026

Our SD Aucas Quito vs Independiente Del Valle prediction for this Serie A match on July 16, 2026, at 21:30, sees Independiente Del Valle as the favorite with a 40% win probability. The hosts have a 25% chance, while a draw stands at 35%. Bookmakers also expect a tight contest, with the draw priced as the most likely single outcome.

Team Form

SD Aucas Quito come into this game in strong shape, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. They beat Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 away, Guayaquil City 1-0 at home, Manta FC 3-1 at home, and San Antonio Cotacachi 3-0 away in the Cup. The only slip was a 0-0 draw at Mushuc Runa. At home in the league, they have won six of nine, scoring 13 and conceding just 7.

Independiente Del Valle are in perfect form, winning all of their last five matches across all competitions. They thrashed Mushuc Runa 4-1 away, beat CD Santo Domingo 2-0 in the Cup, demolished Manta FC 4-0 at home, won 4-2 at Guayaquil City, and edged Rosario Central 1-0 in the Copa Libertadores. Their away record in Serie A is outstanding: eight wins from nine, with 22 goals scored and only 10 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

In 25 previous meetings, SD Aucas Quito have 11 wins, Independiente Del Valle have 9, and 5 ended in draws. The last five encounters show a balanced rivalry: two draws (2-2 in March 2026, 1-1 in March 2024), two away wins for Independiente Del Valle (2-1 in July 2025, 2-1 in March 2025), and one home win for SD Aucas Quito (2-0 in November 2023). The most recent match, in March 2026, finished 2-2.

League Table Positions

Independiente Del Valle top the Serie A overall standings with 43 points from 18 games (14 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). They have scored 40 goals and conceded 19. SD Aucas Quito sit second with 32 points (9 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses), scoring 21 and conceding 16. The 11-point gap underlines the visitors' dominance this season. At home, Aucas are third with 19 points from 9 games, while Independiente Del Valle boast the best away record: 24 points from 9 games (8 wins, 1 loss).

Win Probability: SD Aucas Quito or Independiente Del Valle?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head data, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: SD Aucas Quito 25%, draw 35%, Independiente Del Valle 40%. The odds imply a draw is the most likely result, but the visitors' perfect form and dominant away record tilt the balance in their favor. The home side's solid defense at home keeps them in contention, but the overall strength of Independiente Del Valle makes them the more probable winner.

SD Aucas Quito vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers' average odds are 2.97 for a home win, 2.31 for a draw, and 2.59 for an away win. The low draw odds reflect the tight nature of this fixture. Our prediction leans towards an away win, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. Based on the stats, Independiente Del Valle are the team more likely to take all three points.