Santos Laguna - Atlas Guadalajara prediction 26 July 2026

Santos Laguna vs Atlas Guadalajara prediction for this Liga MX match on Apr 19, 2026. Atlas Guadalajara enters as the favorite with a 45% win probability. Below, we break down team form, head-to-head stats, and the key factors that point to an away victory.

Team Form

Santos Laguna has been inconsistent lately. In their last five matches (all competitions), they recorded two wins and three losses (L, W, W, L, L). The most recent outing was a 0-1 friendly defeat against America de Cali. Before that, they beat Annapolis Blues 2-0 in a friendly, then secured an impressive 3-0 Liga MX home win over CF Monterrey. However, that was followed by a 0-2 loss at Atletico San Luis and a 0-1 home loss to Atlas Guadalajara. At home, Santos has only one win in their last three, with two losses, one of which was against this very opponent.

Atlas Guadalajara shows stronger form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (L, L, W, D, W). Their last five include a 1-0 away win at Club America and a 0-0 home draw with Tigres UANL, plus a 0-1 away win at Santos Laguna. The two losses came against Cruz Azul (home and away). Away from home, Atlas has won two of their last three away fixtures, including the victory at Santos and the win over Club America. This solid road form is a major factor in today's prediction.

Head-to-Head Record

Atlas Guadalajara holds the historical edge. In 26 previous meetings across all competitions, Atlas has 11 wins, Santos Laguna has 5, and there have been 10 draws. The last five encounters show this trend clearly:

• Apr 19, 2026: Santos Laguna 0-1 Atlas Guadalajara (Liga MX)
• Sep 14, 2025: Atlas Guadalajara 2-2 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
• Feb 23, 2025: Santos Laguna 2-0 Atlas Guadalajara (Liga MX)
• Feb 5, 2024: Atlas Guadalajara 3-0 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
• Jul 14, 2023: Santos Laguna 0-0 Atlas Guadalajara (Liga MX)

Santos has won just one of these five, while Atlas won three. Including the most recent meeting, Atlas has now won two in a row against Santos, both by 1-0 scorelines.

Win Probability: Santos Laguna or Atlas Guadalajara?

Based on recent form, head-to-head data, and home/away factors, we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Santos Laguna win: 30%
• Draw: 25%
• Atlas Guadalajara win: 45%

Atlas Guadalajara is the clear favorite. Their away form (two wins in their last three on the road, including a victory at Santos) and a dominant 11-5 head-to-head advantage give them a significant edge. Santos Laguna's leaky defense at home (goalless in two of their last three home matches) and overall inconsistency make an Atlas win the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this fixture were not available at the time of this analysis. Based purely on the statistical evidence, the best match prediction is an Atlas Guadalajara win. A low-scoring game is also probable: four of the last five head-to-head meetings had under 2.5 total goals. Therefore, backing Atlas to win and under 2.5 goals could be a smart betting tip. The 1-0 correct score has occurred in both of Atlas's recent wins over Santos, making it a logical scoreline to consider.