This Santa Clara vs NK Varteks Varazdin prediction for the UEFA Conference League Qualification match on Jul 31, 2025, at 18:00, sees Santa Clara as the strong favorite with a 70% chance to win. The Portuguese side needs to overturn a first-leg deficit, and all stats point to a home victory.
Santa Clara's last five results: L, W, D, W, D. In the Primeira Liga, they lost 1-0 at FC Porto (May 16), beat Nacional Madeira 2-0 (May 11), drew 2-2 at Arouca (May 2), beat Braga 2-1 (Apr 26), and drew 0-0 at Casa Pia (Apr 18). That's two wins, two draws and one loss โ a solid run against top-flight opponents.
NK Varteks Varazdin's form is worrying: L, L, L, D, D. In the Croatian second division (Druga HNL), they lost 3-2 at home to Segesta (May 30), lost 1-0 at home to HNK Dakovo Croatia (May 16), lost 2-1 at Jadran Luka Ploce (May 9), drew 1-1 at Lucko (May 2), and drew 0-0 at home against Hrvatski Dragovoljac (Apr 24). No wins in five and only two goals scored in those matches.
These teams have met only once before โ in the first leg of this same Conference League qualification tie on Jul 24, 2025. NK Varteks Varazdin won that match 2-1 at home, giving them a narrow advantage. Santa Clara now hold home advantage and will be confident of turning the tie around.
Exact league positions are not available in our data, but the gap in league level is clear. Santa Clara compete in Portugal's top division (Primeira Liga), while NK Varteks Varazdin play in Croatia's second tier (Druga HNL). This gulf in regular competition quality heavily favors the home team.
Based on form, league level, home advantage, and the need to overturn a 1-goal deficit from the first leg, the win probabilities for this match are:
Santa Clara's recent form (2W-2D-1L) is far superior to the opponents' (0W-2D-3L), and playing at home against a side from a lower division makes them overwhelming favorites. NK Varteks Varazdin's poor goal-scoring record (only two in five) also suggests they will struggle to threaten.
Odds for this match are not available in the current data, but bookmakers would almost certainly price Santa Clara as clear favorites. Our betting tips align with the stats: Santa Clara to win is the most likely outcome, and a 2-0 home victory would mirror their solid defensive display against Nacional Madeira. Expect the hosts to dominate possession and advance.