Estrela Amadora - Santa Clara prediction 7 February 2026

The Santa Clara vs Estrela Amadora prediction for February 7, 2026, points to a home win in this Primeira Liga fixture. Based on recent form and head-to-head records, Santa Clara has a 45% probability to take the three points, while the draw stands at 30% and an Estrela Amadora away victory at 25%.

Team Form

Santa Clara enter this match with a mixed but relatively solid run of results. Over their last five outings, they have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat (L, W, D, W, D). That sequence includes a 2-0 home win over Nacional Madeira and a 2-1 victory against Braga, showing strength at their own ground. The only loss in that spell came away at FC Porto (1-0).

Estrela Amadora are struggling for form, especially away from home. Their last five matches have produced no wins, two draws, and three losses (D, D, L, L, L). On the road, they managed a 2-2 draw at Braga but also lost 3-2 at Moreirense and 1-0 at Arouca. That record suggests they will find it difficult to contain Santa Clara's attacking play.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head picture slightly favours the visitors. In the three previous meetings, Santa Clara have yet to win, with two draws and one Estrela Amadora victory. The most recent clash saw Estrela win 1-0 at home, while the two earlier encounters both ended goalless. This history indicates that Estrela can be a stubborn opponent, but Santa Clara’s home advantage and improved form may tip the balance this time.

Win Probability: Santa Clara or Estrela Amadora?

We calculate the chances of each outcome as follows: Santa Clara win – 45%, draw – 30%, Estrela Amadora win – 25%. This assessment is based purely on the statistical evidence available. Santa Clara’s stronger recent results (two wins in five, compared to zero for Estrela) and the fact they are playing at home are the main drivers. The head-to-head record, which includes no Santa Clara wins, lowers the home win probability slightly and boosts the chances of a draw and an away upset.

Match Prediction & Betting Tips

Bookmakers’ odds are not available for this fixture, but the stats point toward a home victory. Santa Clara’s superior form and home comfort make them the logical favourites, yet Estrela Amadora’s defensive resilience in recent head-to-head meetings cannot be ignored. The most likely outcome is a narrow win for Santa Clara, with a draw a realistic alternative. Bettors may consider a home win or under 2.5 goals, given the low-scoring history between these sides.