San Jose Earthquakes - Atlanta United prediction 1 March 2026

Our San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United prediction is for this MLS fixture on March 1, 2026, at 00:30 UTC. San Jose Earthquakes enter the match as the clear favorite, with a 55% win probability based on superior league position, home advantage, and a recent upturn in form. Atlanta United, struggling near the bottom of the table and weak on the road, have only a 20% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose's last five results read W, L, L, L, D. They most recently beat Portland Timbers 3-1 away on May 24, but that win followed three consecutive defeats — 0-2 to Colorado Rapids (Open Cup), 2-3 at home to FC Dallas, and 2-3 at Seattle Sounders — plus a 1-1 home draw with Vancouver Whitecaps on May 10. The victory over Portland signals a possible resurgence, but inconsistency remains a concern.

Atlanta United

Atlanta's last five matches produced L, L, D, L, W — a sequence that underlines their problems. They lost 0-2 at Columbus Crew on May 24, crashed 1-4 at Orlando City in the Open Cup on May 19, managed a 1-1 draw at Orlando City in MLS on May 16, were beaten 1-2 at home by LA Galaxy on May 9, and edged Montreal Impact 3-1 at home on May 2. Away from home, Atlanta have looked particularly vulnerable, often conceding heavily.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams is overwhelmingly in Atlanta United's favour — 7 wins for Atlanta, 1 for San Jose, and no draws across 8 meetings. However, the most recent encounter (this exact fixture on March 1, 2026) saw San Jose run out 2-0 winners, suggesting a power shift may be underway despite Atlanta's historical dominance in the series.

League Table Positions

San Jose Earthquakes sit 3rd in the MLS overall standings with 29 points from 14 matches (9 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 31 goals scored, 14 conceded). At home, they are ranked 7th with 13 points from 7 games (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 16 goals for, 6 against). Atlanta United do not appear in the top 12 of the overall or away standings, highlighting a significant gap in quality this season. San Jose's solid home goal difference and strong overall record make them heavy favourites for this contest.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Atlanta United Win Probability & Prediction

Based on the available data — form, league table, head-to-head trends, and home advantage — we calculate the win probabilities as follows: San Jose Earthquakes 55%, draw 25%, Atlanta United 20%. The home side's high league position (3rd vs outside the top 12), recent away win at Portland, and a convincing 2-0 result in the last head-to-head meeting tip the scales decisively in their favour. Atlanta's poor away form (consecutive defeats at Columbus and Orlando) further weakens their case. While the historical H2H record leans heavily toward Atlanta, current surface-level indicators point to a home win as the most likely match outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

No real-time odds are provided in our data feed, but bookmakers would logically price San Jose as strong favourites given their top‑three position and Atlanta’s poor campaign. Our prediction aligns with that view — a San Jose Earthquakes victory is the standout call, with a low-scoring win (e.g., 2-0 or 2-1) a reasonable expectation given both sides' recent defensive numbers.