SalPa - TPV prediction 23 May 2026

SalPa vs TPV prediction for the May 23 Ykkonen clash points strongly to a home victory. Based on recent form, head-to-head dominance, and a massive gap in the league table, SalPa has a 65% chance to win this match, with TPV’s chances sitting at just 15%.

Team Form

SalPa enter this match with a mixed but resilient run: two draws (2-2 vs VJS Vantaa and 2-2 at RoPS Rovaniemen), a 4-3 home win over KuPS Akatemia, a 5-0 loss at OLS, and a 2-1 win at Jazz. They have scored in four of those five outings, showing attacking capability but some defensive fragility.

TPV’s last five results read W, L, D, D, L. They beat JJK Jyvaskyla 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 at VJS Vantaa, drew 2-2 at PK Keski-Uusimaa, drew 1-1 at home with Inter Turku II, and lost 3-0 at home to Tampere United. Away from home, TPV have managed only one draw and five defeats in six league outings, with just six goals scored and 14 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

SalPa have dominated this fixture historically, winning six of the eight meetings as the home side, with no draws and two away wins for TPV. The most recent result—SalPa’s 4-2 win in the reverse fixture—only reinforces the pattern. In their last four encounters before May 23, SalPa won three (5-0 home, 2-0 away, 4-1 away) and lost one (2-4 home), outscoring TPV 13-5 across those games.

League Table Positions

SalPa sit 5th in the Ykkonen overall table with 20 points from 13 games (5W, 5D, 3L), while TPV are 10th with just 10 points from the same number of matches (2W, 4D, 7L). At home, SalPa are the 2nd-best team in the division (4W, 2D, 1L, 21-11 goals), whereas TPV’s away record is the second-worst: 0 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 6 goals scored, 14 conceded. The points gap and home/away split make SalPa overwhelming favorites.

Win Probability: SalPa or TPV?

After weighting the available data—including league standings, home and away stats, H2H supremacy, and current form—we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: SalPa 65% to win, draw 20%, TPV 15%. The home side’s dominant H2H (75% win rate when hosting), top‑two home record, and TPV’s abysmal travelling form all drive the high probability for a SalPa victory. A draw cannot be ruled out given SalPa’s two recent stalemates, but TPV’s chances of snatching a win are slim.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are expected to price SalPa as clear favorites, reflecting their superior league position and home fortress. At the time of writing, specific 1X2 odds were not available in the data, but any market should show a heavy lean toward the home side. Our match prediction aligns with the stats: SalPa are the more likely winners, and backing them to claim three points is the safest call. For value seekers, the ‘SalPa win to nil’ or ‘over 2.5 total goals’ markets may offer additional interest given TPV’s struggles to score away and SalPa’s recent high-scoring matches at home.