Chauray - Saint Malo prediction 17 April 2026

Saint Malo vs Chauray prediction for the National 2 clash on Apr 17 at Stade Municipal. Our expert analysis, based on team form and head‑to‑head data, gives Saint Malo a 60% win probability, making them clear favorites to take all three points.

Team Form

Saint Malo enter this fixture with a solid run of results. In their last five National 2 outings, they have recorded two wins (2‑1 against Dinan Lehon and 1‑0 away at Chauray), two draws (2‑2 at AS Montlouis, 1‑1 versus Saint‑Colomban Locmine), and a single 3‑0 defeat at Lorient II. The home side have scored in four of those five matches and remain unbeaten at Stade Municipal this season.

Chauray, by contrast, have struggled for consistency. Their last five matches returned one win (2‑1 at home to Stade Poitevin), one draw (2‑2 at Soyaux Angouleme), and three losses — including a 4‑1 thrashing at La Roche Vendee and a 1‑0 home reverse to Saint Malo. With only one victory in that spell, the visitors look vulnerable, particularly away from home.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The head‑to‑head numbers point decisively towards Saint Malo. The two previous meetings have both ended in home wins for Saint Malo: a 4‑2 victory on Dec 6, 2025, and a 1‑0 away success on Apr 17, 2026. Aggregate score across those games is 5‑2 in favor of Saint Malo, with Chauray yet to beat this opponent.

League Table Positions

Looking at the overall National 2 standings, Saint Malo occupy 4th place with 49 points (13 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses) and a goal difference of +14. Chauray sit 9th on 38 points (11 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses), trailing by 11 points. The gap is even wider when examining home and away splits: Saint Malo are 2nd in the home table with 33 points from 15 games (9 wins, 6 draws, 0 defeats), while Chauray rank 5th in the away standings, having collected 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses) on their travels.

Win Probability: Saint Malo or Chauray?

After weighing all available evidence — the 1X2 betting market structure, recent form, head‑to‑head history, and league positions — we have calculated the following win probabilities for this match:

• Saint Malo win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Chauray win: 15%

Saint Malo’s unblemished home record (nine wins, six draws) is the single strongest factor. They have not lost at Stade Municipal all season, while Chauray have suffered seven defeats in 15 away matches. The hosts also hold a 100% head‑to‑head winning record. Recent form reinforces this outlook: Saint Malo have picked up eight points from their last five matches, compared to Chauray’s four. The draw probability of 25% reflects Saint Malo’s tendency to share the points at home (six draws from 15 games) and Chauray’s ability to grind out a result occasionally, as shown in their 2‑2 draw at Soyaux Angouleme. A Chauray win is given only a 15% chance, largely because of their weak away form and the historical disadvantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market are not included in the data for this fixture. However, any pricing would almost certainly install Saint Malo as the short‑priced favourite. Our match prediction aligns with the statistical portrait: Saint Malo to win. The hosts’ defensive solidity at home (only 11 goals conceded in 15 home games) and Chauray’s away struggles point towards a home victory, though a watching brief on the draw may appeal to cautious punters given Saint Malo’s six home stalemates. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a home win, while a draw remains the second most likely result.