Saint Louis City - Austin FC prediction 23 May 2026

Saint Louis City vs Austin FC prediction for the MLS match on May 23, 2026, at 18:45. Based on recent form and head-to-head records, Saint Louis City enters as the favorite with a 55% win probability, while Austin FC has a 20% chance and a draw is at 25%.

Team Form

Saint Louis City's recent form (excluding the upcoming match) shows they are unbeaten in their last four games: a 1-0 away win at Colorado Rapids, a 2-1 home victory over Los Angeles FC, a 1-1 draw at D.C. United, and a 2-2 draw at home against Houston Dynamo in the Open Cup. That's two wins and two draws, with solid performances at both ends.

Austin FC, on the other hand, has struggled. Their last four matches: a 2-0 home win over Saint Louis City on May 3, followed by a 2-2 draw at Minnesota United, a heavy 5-0 loss at San Diego FC, and a 1-2 home defeat to Sporting Kansas City. That's one win, one draw, and two losses, with a concerning 8 goals conceded in those four games.

Head-to-Head Record

In seven previous meetings, Saint Louis City leads with 4 wins, Austin FC has 2 wins, and 1 draw. The most recent encounters:

• May 3, 2026: Austin FC 2-0 Saint Louis City
• Oct 5, 2025: Austin FC 1-3 Saint Louis City
• Mar 30, 2025: Saint Louis City 0-1 Austin FC
• Mar 10, 2024: Austin FC 2-2 Saint Louis City

The head-to-head record suggests a slight advantage for Saint Louis, especially at home where they have won key matches.

League Table Positions

The provided standings data does not include the exact positions of Saint Louis City and Austin FC, so direct league table comparison is not possible here.

Win Probability: Saint Louis City or Austin FC?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Saint Louis City win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Austin FC win: 20%

Saint Louis City’s strong home form (unbeaten in four) and superior head-to-head record (4 wins in 7) give them the edge. Austin FC’s leaky defense and poor recent results reduce their chances. The home advantage further tilts the balance in Saint Louis’ favor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds data for this match is not available in the provided dataset. However, based on the statistical analysis, Saint Louis City is the clear favorite to win. The prediction is a home victory for Saint Louis City.