Vitoria Guimaraes - Rio Ave prediction 25 April 2026

The Rio Ave vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction suggests an away victory in this Primeira Liga encounter on April 25, 2026. Vitoria Guimaraes has a 55% chance to win, while Rio Ave holds just a 20% win probability and the draw is at 25%. We break down the key stats and betting tips.

Team Form

Rio Ave come into this match on a five-game winless run. Their last five results: a 1-1 draw at Casa Pia (May 16), a 4-1 home loss to Sporting Lisbon (May 11), a 0-0 home draw with Gil Vicente (May 3), a 2-0 away defeat to Vitoria Guimaraes (Apr 25), and a 2-2 home draw with Avs Futebol Sad (Apr 17). They have scored just 4 goals in that span while conceding 9, highlighting defensive issues. At home, Rio Ave have lost once and drawn twice in the last three, failing to keep a clean sheet in two of those games.

Vitoria Guimaraes have had mixed results. Their last five: a 2-0 loss at Nacional Madeira (May 16), a 1-0 home loss to Casa Pia (May 11), a 5-1 thrashing at Sporting Lisbon (May 4), a 2-0 home win against Rio Ave (Apr 25), and a 1-0 away win at Gil Vicente (Apr 18). That's two wins and three losses, with the two wins both coming against teams in the bottom half (including Rio Ave). They have conceded 9 goals in their five matches as well, but they have managed to score in four of five. Their away form is inconsistent: the win at Gil Vicente was preceded by heavy defeats at Sporting and Nacional.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head shows a clear advantage for Vitoria Guimaraes. In 24 meetings, Vitoria have won 14, Rio Ave 4, with 6 draws. The last four encounters (excluding this fixture) resulted in three wins for Vitoria and one draw. On December 13, 2025, Vitoria won 1-0 at Rio Ave. On April 27, 2025, they triumphed 3-0 at home. The only blemish from Vitoria's perspective was a 2-2 draw at Rio Ave on December 16, 2024. Before that, Vitoria won 1-0 at home on December 23, 2023. Overall, Vitoria have scored at least once in each of the last four head-to-heads and kept two clean sheets.

Win Probability: Rio Ave or Vitoria Guimaraes?

We assign Vitoria Guimaraes a 55% chance of winning this match. This probability is derived from their overwhelming head-to-head record (14 wins to 4), the fact that they have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and Rio Ave's five-match winless streak. Rio Ave's home edge does little to offset their poor form, so they receive just a 20% chance. The draw probability is set at 25%, reflecting Rio Ave's three draws in their last five and Vitoria's occasional away-day inconsistency. Consequently, the data strongly indicates Vitoria Guimaraes as the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Currently, no bookmaker odds are available for this fixture. When they are released, Vitoria Guimaraes are expected to be priced as favorites, possibly around 1.80 for an away win, with Rio Ave around 4.50 and the draw near 3.50. Based on the statistical analysis, our prediction is a Vitoria Guimaraes victory.