Forward Madison FC - Richmond Kickers prediction 16 July 2026

Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC prediction for the USL League One match on July 16, 2026. The bookmakers have installed Richmond Kickers as the favorite, but recent form and head-to-head records suggest Forward Madison FC could cause an upset. Our win probability analysis gives Richmond Kickers a 45% chance, the draw 30%, and Forward Madison FC a 25% chance.

Team Form

Richmond Kickers come into this match with mixed recent results. In their last five outings, they have recorded one win, one draw, and three losses. They secured a 2-1 away victory against Greenville Triumph on July 11, followed by a 0-0 home draw with Sarasota Paradise on July 4. However, they suffered a heavy 1-5 defeat at Portland Hearts of Pine on June 24, a 0-2 home loss to Fort Wayne on June 20, and a 0-1 away loss to Corpus Christi on June 14. The team has struggled for consistency, especially at home where they failed to score in two of those matches.

Forward Madison FC, on the other hand, is in excellent form. They have won four and drawn one of their last five matches. Their recent run includes a 4-3 home win over Union Omaha on July 12, a 1-0 away win at Spokane Velocity on July 2, a 3-1 home win against New York Cosmos on June 21, a 1-1 home draw with Fort Wayne on June 18, and a dominant 5-1 home victory over AC Boise on June 14. With 13 goals scored in these five games, their attack looks sharp.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides shows Forward Madison FC with a clear advantage: 8 wins to Richmond Kickers' 5, with 1 draw. Looking at the last five meetings, Forward Madison FC has won four times. The most recent encounter on October 25, 2025, saw Richmond Kickers win 5-1 at home, but prior to that, Forward Madison FC won 1-0 (Sep 2025), 2-1 (Mar 2025), 2-0 (Sep 2023), and 2-1 (Aug 2023). This history suggests that Forward Madison FC often performs well against Richmond Kickers, even away from home.

League Table Positions

In the USL League One standings, Richmond Kickers are currently outside the top 12, indicating a difficult season so far. Forward Madison FC sits 7th with 23 points from 13 matches (7 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), scoring 22 goals and conceding 14. Notably, Forward Madison FC ranks 2nd in the away standings, having collected 13 points from 9 away games (4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Richmond Kickers' home form has not been strong enough to place them in the top 8 home teams, which further complicates their favorite tag.

Win Probability: Richmond Kickers or Forward Madison FC?

Based on the odds and a thorough analysis of form, head-to-head, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Richmond Kickers 45%, draw 30%, Forward Madison FC 25%. The bookmakers' odds (home win at 1.53, draw 2.30, away win 5.50) imply a much higher chance for the home side, but the significant gap in recent form and the historical head-to-head record force a downward adjustment. Forward Madison FC's strong away performances and Richmond Kickers' struggles at home make an away win or a draw realistic outcomes. Therefore, while Richmond Kickers remains the most likely winner, the match is far from a foregone conclusion.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Richmond Kickers to win at 1.53, a draw at 2.30, and Forward Madison FC to win at 5.50. These odds reflect the bookmakers' view that Richmond Kickers is the clear favorite. However, considering the visitors' excellent form and dominant head-to-head record, the value might lie in the double chance or an away win. Our prediction: based on the stats, this match could be closer than the odds suggest. A draw or a narrow win for either side is plausible, but Forward Madison FC's momentum gives them a genuine chance to take at least a point.