Red Bull Salzburg vs SC Freiburg prediction: the UEFA Europa League match on Dec 11, 2025, at 20:00 UTC takes place at Europa-Park Stadion. Based on current form, head-to-head record and home advantage, SC Freiburg enters this fixture as the favorite with a 45% win probability.
Red Bull Salzburg are in strong shape with four wins and one loss in their last five outings (W-W-W-W-L). Their most recent competitive match resulted in a 1-3 home defeat to TSV Hartberg, but prior to that they scored 15 goals across four friendly victories, including a 5-0 away success.
SC Freiburg come into this game with mixed results: L-W-L-W-D over the last five. A heavy 0-3 home loss to Aston Villa in the Europa League was followed by a convincing 4-1 win against RB Leipzig. Their home form shows two wins, one draw and one loss in the last four at Europa-Park Stadion.
These sides have met only once before. SC Freiburg claimed a 1-0 home victory in that single head-to-head contest, a result that gives them a psychological edge going into this encounter.
We calculate the outcome chances as follows: SC Freiburg win – 45%, draw – 30%, Red Bull Salzburg win – 25%. The probability model considers home advantage (Freiburg’s stadium), the head-to-head record (1-0 home win for Freiburg) and recent form, where Salzburg’s four-match winning streak is offset by a competitive defeat and fewer tests at this level. Therefore, SC Freiburg is more likely to win, but a draw remains a realistic outcome.
Bookmakers have not yet released odds for this fixture. Based on the stats available, our prediction leans towards a home win for SC Freiburg. Salzburg’s attacking form makes a goal expected, but Freiburg’s home solidity and previous H2H success suggest they can edge the match. A 2-1 or 1-0 scoreline for the home side appears the most probable result.