Real Maryland Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance prediction 20 July 2026

Our Real Maryland Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance prediction for this MLS Next Pro match on Jul 20 suggests the hosts hold a slight edge. Kickoff is at 01:30 at the home of the Monarchs. Based on our winning chance analysis, Real Maryland Monarchs have a 40% probability to win, while Tacoma Defiance sit at 35%, with a 25% chance of a draw.

Team Form

Real Maryland Monarchs enter this match with a mixed run in their last five outings, recording results of W, D, L, L, W. In their most recent match, the Monarchs earned a 2-1 home victory against Vancouver Whitecaps II on Jul 12. Prior to that, they played a 2-2 draw at Los Angeles II.

Tacoma Defiance have been slightly more consistent, posting a W, L, D, W, W sequence across their last five games. On Jul 13, they secured a 1-0 away win at San Jose Earthquakes II. Their last home fixture, however, ended in a 0-2 loss to Portland Timbers II on Jul 06.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head battles between these two clubs, Tacoma Defiance have had the upper hand, winning 5 of the 9 encounters. Real Maryland Monarchs have claimed 3 victories, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent meeting was on Jun 22, 2026, where Tacoma Defiance claimed a 1-0 home win. Earlier in the 2025 season, the Monarchs thrashed Tacoma 3-0 on Sep 01, and also won 2-1 at home on Jun 12.

League Table Positions

Looking at the MLS Next Pro standings, Real Maryland Monarchs are positioned 6th in the home table with 21 points from 10 matches (7 wins, 3 losses), scoring 17 and conceding 16. Tacoma Defiance do not feature in the top 8 away standings, highlighting a potential vulnerability on the road. In the overall league table, several teams like Austin II lead the pack, but these sides are focused on climbing higher.

Win Probability: Real Maryland Monarchs or Tacoma Defiance?

Who will win this match? We have assigned the following outcome probabilities:

• Real Maryland Monarchs win: 40%
• Draw: 25%
• Tacoma Defiance win: 35%

This calculation is based on the available bookmaker odds, with the inverse of the odds normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted for form and home advantage. The Monarchs get a boost from playing at home, where they have won 7 of 10 league games. Tacoma Defiance, despite winning the last H2H, are slightly penalized by inconsistent away form. The draw percentage reflects the tight odds and competitive head-to-head history.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers make the hosts their match favorite with the tightest odds available: a home win priced at 1.90, the draw at 2.42, and an away win at 3.30. Based on the stats, the Real Maryland Monarchs vs Tacoma Defiance prediction favors the home side, but the market suggests a closely contested affair. A bet on the Monarchs to win offers value for those who trust their solid home record, though Tacoma Defiance cannot be ruled out given their recent H2H win.