Keila - Rakvere JK Tarvas prediction 11 April 2026
Keila
Rakvere JK TarvasHarju JK Laagri 2KeilaKeilaHelios TartuTartu JK Welco Elekter IIKeilaTabasalu Ulasabat CFKeilaKeilaRakvere JK TarvasFC Tallinn U21KeilaTallinn 2KeilaKeilaKuressaare IIViimsi IIKeilaKeilaRakvere JK TarvasFlora Tallinna U19KeilaKeilaHiiumaaKeilaParnu PoseidonFCI Levadia Tallinn U19KeilaViimsi IIKeilaHarju JK Laagri 2Rakvere JK TarvasHelios TartuRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasTallinna FC PlacetRakvere JK TarvasFlora Tallinna U19Rakvere JK TarvasLaanemaa HaapsaluKeilaRakvere JK TarvasTabasalu Ulasabat CFRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasFA Tartu Kalev IIRakvere JK TarvasFCI Levadia Tallinn U19KeilaRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasFC Tallinn U21Rakvere JK TarvasHiiumaaHarju JK Laagri 2Rakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasViljandi TulevikFlora Tallinna IIIRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasKeilaKeilaRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaKeilaRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasKeilaRakvere JK TarvasRakvere JK TarvasKeila| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tartu JK Welco Elekter | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 62:24 | +38 | 45 |
| 2 |  Viimsi MRJK | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 31:19 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn II | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 45:35 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Elva | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 37:33 | +4 | 30 |
| 5 |  Levadia Tallinn II | 19 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 37:35 | +2 | 24 |
| 6 |  FC Maardu | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27:46 | -19 | 23 |
| 7 |  Tallinna Kalev | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 37:39 | -2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Nomme United 2 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 35:42 | -7 | 20 |
| 9 |  JK Nomme Kalju 2 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 30:44 | -14 | 19 |
| 10 |  FC Tallinn | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25:49 | -24 | 17 |
Rakvere JK Tarvas vs Keila Prediction (Apr 11)
Rakvere JK Tarvas vs Keila prediction for the Esiliiga match on April 11, 2026, at 10:00. Based on head-to-head dominance and recent form, Rakvere JK Tarvas enters this fixture as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability. Keila faces an uphill battle, especially away from home.
Team Form
Rakvere JK Tarvas come into this match with a mixed but slightly positive run. Their last five results show three wins and two losses (L, W, L, W, W). At home, they have been solid, recording victories against Flora Tallinna U19 (3-0) and Laanemaa Haapsalu (3-0), though they did slip up against Tallinna FC Placet (1-2). This home strength will be crucial.
Keila's recent form is less convincing. Their last five away matches (L, W, L, W, L) include two heavy defeats — 1-7 against Harju JK Laagri 2 and 0-7 against Tartu JK Welco Elekter II. While they managed a 2-1 win at Tabasalu Ulasabat CF, consistency has been a major issue on the road.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical head-to-head record heavily favors the home side. Across all meetings, the home team has won 12 times, with 4 draws and only 4 away wins. In the most recent five encounters, Rakvere JK Tarvas have won four, including a 6-2 away victory in the reverse fixture on April 11, 2026, and a 4-0 home win in June 2025. Keila's sole win in that span was a 6-1 home victory back in October 2020. This pattern underlines a strong home advantage for Rakvere JK Tarvas.
League Table Positions
Neither Rakvere JK Tarvas nor Keila appear in the provided Esiliiga top-10 standings, meaning both sides are likely positioned in the lower half of the table. As a result, league positions offer little additional insight for this prediction, shifting the focus entirely to form and H2H data.
Win Probability: Rakvere JK Tarvas or Keila?
After analyzing all available data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:
- Rakvere JK Tarvas win: 60%
- Draw: 20%
- Keila win: 20%
This assessment is based primarily on the head-to-head record, where the home side has won 60% of all meetings (12 out of 20). Rakvere JK Tarvas also boast superior recent form and a strong home record, while Keila have struggled badly on their travels. The draw probability reflects the occasional stalemates in this fixture (4 in 20 games), but a home win is the most likely outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers' odds are not available for this fixture. However, based on the stats, Rakvere JK Tarvas are the clear favorites. The combination of a dominant H2H home record, better recent results, and Keila's poor away form points firmly toward a home victory. Our prediction is a win for Rakvere JK Tarvas, with a correct score lean of 2-0 or 3-1, given their recent home scoring form.
Rakvere JK Tarvas vs Keila — FAQ
- Who will win Rakvere JK Tarvas vs Keila?
- Rakvere JK Tarvas have a 60% chance of winning, while the draw and a Keila win each stand at 20%. This is based on a head-to-head record that shows 12 home wins in 20 meetings and Rakvere's stronger recent form.
- What is the win probability for Rakvere JK Tarvas?
- Rakvere JK Tarvas have a 60% probability to win. This figure is derived from the historical home win rate in this fixture (60%) and their solid home performances this season.
- When is the Rakvere JK Tarvas vs Keila match?
- The match is on April 11, 2026, at 10:00 UTC. It is an Esiliiga fixture, Estonia's second-tier football league.
- What are the odds for the match?
- No bookmaker odds are currently available for this match. All predictions are based solely on team form, head-to-head statistics, and home advantage.
- What is the head-to-head record between Rakvere JK Tarvas and Keila?
- In 20 previous meetings, the home side has won 12 times, with 4 draws and 4 away wins. Rakvere JK Tarvas have won four of the last five encounters, including a 6-2 away victory in the most recent clash.