Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown - Qingdao Hainiu prediction 14 July 2026

The Qingdao Hainiu vs Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown prediction for this China. Super League match on Jul 14 at 11:35 points to a tight contest. Our win probability analysis gives Qingdao Hainiu a 48% chance of winning, the draw a 32% chance, and Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown a 20% chance. Home advantage and league positions make the hosts slight favorites, but the head-to-head record adds serious doubt.

Team Form

Qingdao Hainiu's last five matches show mixed results: D, W, D, L, L. They drew 1-1 with Chengdu Rongcheng on Jul 05, beat Yunnan Yukun 4-2 on Jun 26, drew 2-2 with Wuxi Wugou in the FA Cup, lost 3-2 to Shenzhen Peng City, and lost 1-0 at home to Chongqing Tonglianglong. The home side has struggled for consistency, with only one win in their last five outings.

Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown's recent form is even more worrying: L, L, D, W, L. They lost 3-2 to Shanghai Shenhua on Jul 05, fell 3-1 to Qingdao West Coast, drew 1-1 with Shaanxi Union in the cup, beat Henan Jianye 2-0, and suffered a shocking 5-0 home defeat to Liaoning Shenyang Urban Tieren. The visitors have lost three of their last five, conceding 12 goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors the away side. In five previous meetings, Qingdao Hainiu have never won (0 wins), with three draws and two Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown victories. The most recent clash on Mar 20, 2026, ended in a 4-1 away win for Zhejiang. Earlier encounters include a 2-2 draw in November 2025 and a 3-0 Zhejiang win in June 2025. This psychological edge cannot be ignored when making a Qingdao Hainiu vs Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown prediction.

League Table Positions

In the China. Super League standings, Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown sit 9th with 22 points from 17 matches (6W, 4D, 7L, 23:29 goals). Qingdao Hainiu are just behind in 11th with 21 points (6W, 3D, 8L, 27:28 goals). The home/away splits reveal a different story: Qingdao Hainiu boast the 5th-best home record (5W, 2D, 2L, 17:11 goals), while Zhejiang have the 8th-best away record (3W, 1D, 5L, 13:19 goals). Home form gives Qingdao a clear advantage.

Win Probability: Qingdao Hainiu or Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown?

Based on the latest odds, team form, H2H record, and home/away stats, we calculate the following probabilities:

• Qingdao Hainiu win: 48%
• Draw: 32%
• Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown win: 20%

The bookmakers' average odds (home 1.61, draw 2.77, away 5.32) imply a 53% home win chance after removing the margin. However, we have adjusted that figure downward because of Qingdao's poor recent form (one win in five) and Zhejiang's dominant H2H record (unbeaten in five meetings). The draw probability is boosted by the fact that three of the five H2H matches ended level. Zhejiang's 20% chance reflects their ability to get results against this opponent, despite their poor away form. Overall, Qingdao Hainiu are more likely to win, but the value may lie in the draw or even an away upset.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Qingdao Hainiu as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win are around 1.44–1.75, the draw is priced at 2.62–2.94, and an away win for Zhejiang Lucheng Hangzhou Greentown can be backed at 4.50–6.20. These odds reflect the home team's strong record at their own stadium.

Final prediction: Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow home win or a draw. The head-to-head record and both teams' recent struggles suggest goals could be scarce, but Qingdao Hainiu's home advantage should see them avoid defeat. A 1-1 draw or a 2-1 home win are the most probable scorelines. For betting tips, the draw offers value given the H2H history.