Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen - Qingdao Hainiu prediction 17 July 2026

Qingdao Hainiu vs Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen prediction for the China. Super League match on Jul 17, 2026, at 11:35. The game takes place at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou, the home city of Henan Jianye, but Qingdao Hainiu is the designated home side. Our analysis gives Qingdao Hainiu a 55% chance of winning, the draw a 25% chance, and Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen a 20% chance.

Team Form

Qingdao Hainiu's last five matches: D 1-1 vs Chengdu Rongcheng, W 4-2 vs Yunnan Yukun, D 2-2 vs Wuxi Wugou (FA Cup), L 2-3 vs Shenzhen Peng City, L 0-1 vs Chongqing Tonglianglong. That's one win, two draws, and two losses. At home in the league, they have been solid with a 5-2-2 record and 17 goals scored.

Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen's last five: D 0-0 vs Wuhan Three Towns, L 1-2 vs Yunnan Yukun, L 1-2 vs Shanghai SIPG, W 2-0 vs Jiangxi Beidamen (FA Cup), L 0-2 vs Zhejiang Lucheng. They have one win, one draw, and three losses, struggling for consistency and scoring only 4 goals in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, Qingdao Hainiu won 2, Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen won 1, and 2 ended in draws. The most recent clash on Apr 4, 2026, saw Qingdao Hainiu win 1-0 at home. The previous home match for Qingdao against Henan ended 1-1. Overall, Qingdao has a slight edge in this fixture, unbeaten in their last two home games against Henan.

League Table Positions

Both teams are neck-and-neck in the China. Super League standings. Qingdao Hainiu sits 11th with 21 points (6W,3D,8L), while Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen is 10th also with 21 points (6W,3D,8L). Qingdao has a better goal difference (-1 vs -4). At home, Qingdao ranks 5th with 17 points from 9 games (5W,2D,2L). Henan's away form is 7th with 11 points from 9 games (3W,2D,4L). The home advantage is clear, even with the match being played in Zhengzhou.

Win Probability: Qingdao Hainiu or Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen?

After analyzing the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: Qingdao Hainiu has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Henan Jianye Songshan Longmen has a 20% chance. The odds implied a home win probability around 49.7%, but Qingdao's strong home form (5 wins in 9) and Henan's poor away record (3 wins in 9) boost the home side's chances. The head-to-head also favors Qingdao, who are unbeaten in their last two home games against Henan. Therefore, Qingdao Hainiu is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Qingdao Hainiu as the clear favorite. The average odds are 1.58 for a home win, 2.43 for a draw, and 4.69 for an away win. These odds reflect a strong belief in a Qingdao victory. Based on the stats, our prediction is a home win for Qingdao Hainiu, but a draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' inconsistent form. For betting tips, the home win offers value, but cautious bettors might consider the draw no bet market.

Pre-Match Update: Two Days to Kick-Off

Current odds have shifted slightly: the average home win is now 1.55, the draw 3.17, and an away win 5.05. Based on these odds, bookmakers imply a 56% chance for Qingdao Hainiu, a 27% chance for the draw, and a 17% chance for Henan Jianye. In late form, Qingdao fell to a 2-3 away defeat at Zhejiang Lucheng on July 14, leaving them with 21 points from 18 matches and slipping to 11th. Henan Jianye, also on 21 points from 17 games, remain 10th with a game in hand.