Puszcza Niepolomice - Jaroslaw prediction 23 July 2026

The Puszcza Niepolomice vs Jaroslaw prediction for the Friendly Clubs match on Jul 23, 2026 at 16:00 points to a clear favorite. Puszcza Niepolomice enters as the likely winner with a 60% win probability, while Jaroslaw has a 15% chance and the draw stands at 25%. Bookmakers heavily back the home side, but Jaroslaw's strong recent form adds a layer of intrigue.

Team Form

Puszcza Niepolomice's last five results read L, W, L, W, L, showing inconsistency. In their most recent friendly, they lost 2-0 to Widzew Lodz on Jul 19. A 4-1 win over Stal Mielec (Jul 11) was followed by a 4-0 defeat to Wisla Krakow (Jul 1). Their only home match in this stretch was a 3-0 victory against Star Starachowice. Overall, Puszcza has managed two wins and three losses in their last five friendlies, all against varied opposition.

Jaroslaw, on the other hand, brings a D, W, W, W, W form sequence. Their latest outing was a 2-2 draw with Stal Mielec in a friendly (Jul 17). Before that, they dominated in the IV Liga, winning 3-1 at Karpaty Krosno, 3-1 at home to Polonia Przemysl, 5-0 at KS Wiazownica, and 7-0 at home to Czarni Jaslo. That's four wins and one draw in their last five, with 19 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Jaroslaw's momentum is undeniable, even if the level of competition was lower.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, also in a Friendly Clubs match. On Jan 26, 2025, Puszcza Niepolomice beat Jaroslaw 1-0 at home. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Puszcza, 0 draws, and 0 wins for Jaroslaw. It's a slim sample, but Puszcza holds the psychological edge from that encounter.

Win Probability: Puszcza Niepolomice or Jaroslaw?

We calculated the win probabilities starting from the inverse of the available odds, normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusting for team form and head-to-head history. The raw odds-based chances were Puszcza 64.9%, draw 23.8%, Jaroslaw 11.4%. However, Jaroslaw's excellent recent form (4 wins, 1 draw) and Puszcza's patchy results (2 wins, 3 losses) justified a slight shift. The final estimates are:

• Puszcza Niepolomice win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Jaroslaw win: 15%

Puszcza remains the most likely winner, but the 15% upset chance is meaningful given Jaroslaw's scoring form. The draw also carries a higher probability than what raw odds suggest, reflecting the unpredictable nature of friendlies.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Puszcza Niepolomice as the clear favorite. The 1X2 odds range from 1.22 to 1.27 for a home win, with some books offering a draw as high as 6.00 and others as low as 2.88. Jaroslaw's away win is priced between 6.25 and 9.33. Such variation hints at different assessments of Jaroslaw's threat. Based on the stats and form, our Puszcza Niepolomice vs Jaroslaw prediction leans toward a home win, but a draw is not out of the question. The safest betting tip may be a home win with a small stake on the double chance (home or draw).