Portland Thorns Women - Racing Louisville Women prediction 5 July 2026

Portland Thorns Women vs Racing Louisville Women prediction for the NWSL Women clash on July 5, 2026. Portland Thorns Women are the clear favorites, holding a 70% win probability, while Racing Louisville Women have just a 10% chance. The draw stands at 20%.

Team Form

Portland Thorns Women come into this match with a mixed but solid recent record: W, D, L, W, D in their last five outings. They secured a 2-2 draw against Utah Royals FC Women, lost 3-1 to Kansas City Women, beat Bay FC Women 2-0, and drew 0-0 with Angel City Women. Their most recent result was a dominant 4-0 win over Racing Louisville Women on July 5.

Racing Louisville Women are in disastrous form, losing all five of their last matches: L, L, L, L, L. They fell 0-2 to Bay FC Women, 0-4 to Portland Thorns Women, 0-1 to Denver Summit Women, 1-2 to North Carolina Courage Women, and 1-2 to Utah Royals FC Women. The team has failed to score in three of those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides have met twice in the NWSL Women. Portland Thorns Women won the most recent encounter 4-0 at home on July 5, 2026. Racing Louisville Women claimed a 3-1 home victory on May 8, 2026. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at one win each, with no draws.

League Table Positions

Portland Thorns Women sit 2nd in the overall standings with 27 points from 14 matches (8 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 24 goals and conceded only 14. At home, they are unbeaten: 5 wins and 2 draws from 7 matches, with 14 goals scored and just 2 conceded.

Racing Louisville Women are not in the top 12 of the league table, indicating a very low position. Their away form is similarly poor, as they are absent from the top 8 away standings. The gap between the two teams is huge.

Win Probability: Portland Thorns Women or Racing Louisville Women?

Taking all available data into account, the win probabilities are as follows:

• Portland Thorns Women win: 70%
• Draw: 20%
• Racing Louisville Women win: 10%

This calculation is based on the stark contrast in recent form (Portland’s W-D-L-W-D vs Racing’s five straight losses), the head-to-head result from their last meeting (4-0 to Portland), the massive gap in league positions (Portland 2nd vs Racing unranked), and Portland’s perfect home record. Racing Louisville Women have shown no signs of recovery, making a Portland win the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available in the provided data, but all statistical indicators point to a comfortable Portland Thorns Women victory. Given their formidable home form and Racing’s total collapse, the prediction is a home win. The final score of 4-0 in their last outing may be repeated, though a more conservative outcome is still a Portland win.