Denver Summit Women - Portland Thorns Women prediction 18 July 2026

The Portland Thorns Women vs Denver Summit Women prediction for July 18, 2026, in the NWSL Women league points to a home win with a 38% probability. Portland Thorns Women host Denver Summit Women at 18:00 UTC, and based on form, league standings, and home advantage, they are the favorites, though the odds suggest a tight contest.

Team Form

Portland Thorns Women

Portland Thorns Women's last five matches show a mixed run: L, W, D, L, W. They suffered a 2-0 away loss to Seattle Reign FC Women on Jul 12, but bounced back with a dominant 4-0 home win over Racing Louisville Women on Jul 05. A 2-2 home draw with Utah Royals FC Women on May 30 and a 3-1 away defeat to Kansas City Women on May 24 were followed by a 2-0 home victory against Bay FC Women on May 21. At home, they have been formidable, unbeaten in seven league games (5 wins, 2 draws) with 14 goals scored and only 2 conceded.

Denver Summit Women

Denver Summit Women's recent form reads D, L, W, L, W. They drew 2-2 at home with Houston Dash Women on Jul 12, lost 0-3 at home to Kansas City Women on Jul 04, won 1-0 away at Racing Louisville Women on May 30, lost 2-1 away to Utah Royals FC Women on May 23, and beat Orlando Pride Women 3-1 at home on May 17. Their away record is decent with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 9.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Portland Thorns Women and Denver Summit Women. This will be the first competitive meeting between the two sides.

League Table Positions

Portland Thorns Women sit 3rd in the NWSL Women overall standings with 27 points from 15 matches (8 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). They have scored 24 goals and conceded 16. Denver Summit Women are 11th with 16 points from 13 games (4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses), scoring 19 and conceding 18. The home and away splits highlight Portland's strength: they are 2nd in the home table with 17 points from 7 games (5W,2D,0L) and a +12 goal difference. Denver are 6th in the away table with 11 points from 8 away matches (3W,2D,3L).

Win Probability: Portland Thorns Women or Denver Summit Women?

Based on the odds, recent form, league positions, and home/away performance, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Portland Thorns Women have a 38% chance of winning, a draw stands at 32%, and Denver Summit Women have a 30% chance. The bookmakers' odds implied a draw as the most likely outcome (around 40%), but we adjusted for Portland's unbeaten home record and higher league standing. Portland's solid defense at home (only 2 goals conceded in 7 games) gives them a slight edge, making them the more probable winner, though a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Portland Thorns Women win at 3.00 (first bookmaker) and 2.90 (second), a draw at 2.10 and 2.20, and a Denver Summit Women win at 3.05 and 2.80. Bookmakers see a draw as the favorite outcome, but our analysis suggests value in backing Portland Thorns Women to win given their home fortress. Our match prediction: Portland Thorns Women are the most likely winners, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the home win offers attractive odds.